Augsburg, currently 7th in the league, will host Union Berlin, who are in 13th place, at WWK Arena. The kick-off is scheduled for Friday Apr 12, 2024 – 7:30pm.
Here’s a brief overview of both teams’ recent performances:
Augsburg’s Recent Form
- Augsburg has been strong at home, remaining unbeaten in their last 4 matches at the WWK Arena.
- They have picked up 10 points from their last 5 games overall, averaging 2 points per game, and have managed to score in all of their last 5 home games.
- Home xG for Augsburg is 1.44.
Union Berlin’s Recent Form
- Union Berlin has struggled both home and away, gaining just 4 points from their last 5 matches and scoring only twice in these games.
- They have had difficulties in front of goal, especially away from home, failing to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Away xG for Union Berlin is 1.05.
Match Expectations
Given Augsburg’s solid home form and offensive consistency, contrasted with Union Berlin’s scoring struggles on the road, the home side might have the upper edge in this encounter.
Analysis of Team Performance Metrics vs. Bookmaker Odds
Full-Time Result (FT Result): Augsburg shows stronger home form, having an edge with a win rate of 36% at home compared to Union Berlin’s 14% win rate away. The best odds for an Augsburg win are at 2.13 from multiple bookmakers, which seems justified given their better performance metrics at home. The odds of 2.13 offer marginal value considering Augsburg’s solid home form versus Union Berlin’s poor away record.
Over/Under: The match has a statistical prediction of 2.79 goals per match between these teams. The Over 2.5 goals market is priced best at 1.94 by Pncl and several others. Given that 50% of games involving these teams have gone over 2.5, the odds of 1.94 offer value, especially when compared to the historical average of 2.79 goals in matches between them.
Both Teams To Score (BTTS): With a BTTS percentage of 58% and the league average standing at 62%, the offered odds of 1.81 by Betfair for “Yes” are attractive. Given Augsburg’s and Union Berlin’s defensive inconsistencies, there’s good value in betting on both teams scoring.
Result 1st Half: Considering the first-half form, where Augsburg generally performs better, a draw at half-time appears to be a strong possibility, particularly as Augsburg has drawn 50% of their first halves at home. The best odds for a half-time draw are 2.31 at Pncl, representing value given the high draw rate in the first half.
BTTS 1st Half: Both teams have lower rates of scoring in the first half. Given the odds of 4.75 (Pncl) for “Yes,” the risk does not offer value considering the historical data showing low first-half BTTS percentages. It’s a high-risk bet with insufficient backing data.
Over/Under 1st Half: Over 1.5 goals in the first half is set at 2.85 at Marathon and others, with a 43% occurrence rate. The probability versus the odds suggests a high-risk option; thus, this does not present strong value due to a lesser likelihood of over 1.5 goals occurring in the first half.
Team To Score First: Given Augsburg’s better scoring rate in earlier parts of matches and their home advantage, they are likely to score first. Best odds for Augsburg to score first are at 1.77 (Pncl), offering reasonable value considering their offensive statistics.
Win To Nil: With both teams struggling for clean sheets, a win to nil is unlikely. Augsburg winning to nil at odds of 3.55 (WilliamHill) is not recommended based on their only 7% clean sheet rate at home.
Recommended Value Bets:
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) at 1.81 (Betfair) – Augsburg and Union Berlin’s tendency to concede and score aligns well with this bet.
- Full-Time Result (Augsburg to win) at 2.13 (multiple bookmakers) – Good value considering Augsburg’s solid home form.
- Over 2.5 Goals at 1.94 (Pncl) – Matches involving these teams average close to this total, providing value at these odds.
These bets have been selected based on a detailed analysis of the teams’ statistical performances against the bookmaker odds, aiming to find the best potential value while managing risk.
AI Match Commentary: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
AI Statto’s analysis offers an educated guess on the Bundesliga Metz vs Lens match, drawing from detailed goal-scoring data and trends.
This predictive commentary provides insights into when goals are likely to occur, especially useful for assessing first-half scoring chances.
However, it’s important to note that these predictions are based on statistical analysis and past performances, not certainties, reflecting the unpredictable nature of football.
1st min – Kick-off: The match gets underway at WWK Arena, with Augsburg initiating the first attack, testing Union Berlin’s defence early on.
12th min – Goal – ⚽: [1-0] Augsburg takes the lead as a sharp cross from the right wing finds the head of their towering striker, who nods it past the Union Berlin goalkeeper.
27th min – Yellow Card: Union Berlin’s midfielder is booked for a late challenge near the centre circle, trying to halt an Augsburg break.
34th min – Goal – ⚽: [1-1] Union Berlin equalises. A swift counter-attack ends with their winger cutting inside and curling a shot into the top corner, beating the outstretched hands of the Augsburg keeper.
45+2 min – Half-Time: The first half comes to an end with the score tied at 1-1. Both teams have shown intent, and the match is evenly poised going into the break.
46th min – Second Half Begins: Union Berlin restarts the game, now attacking with more purpose as they seek to turn the tide in their favour.
57th min – Goal – ⚽: [2-1] Augsburg regains the lead with a beautifully worked goal. A series of quick passes around the box ends with their midfielder smashing the ball into the net from close range.
68th min – Yellow Card: Augsburg’s defender receives a booking for a clumsy tackle on the edge of the box. The resulting free-kick, however, flies harmlessly over the bar.
79th min – Goal – ⚽: [3-1] Augsburg extend their lead. A mistake by Union Berlin’s defence allows Augsburg’s young forward to steal the ball and place it beyond the goalkeeper’s reach into the far corner.
85th min – Red Card: Union Berlin’s frustration boils over as their striker is sent off for a reckless challenge from behind on Augsburg’s captain.
90+3 min – Full-Time: The referee blows the whistle, and Augsburg secures a 3-1 victory at home. They were the better side today, taking their chances well and defending stoutly when needed.
Match Recap: Augsburg demonstrated why they were the favourites coming into this fixture, with a solid performance leading to a 3-1 win over Union Berlin. The match lived up to the scoring expectations, comfortably surpassing the Over 2.5 Goals mark. Both teams managed to find the net, confirming the BTTS prediction.
Union Berlin’s efforts were hampered late on with a red card, effectively ending their chances of a comeback. Augsburg’s ability to capitalise on their home advantage was evident, aligning perfectly with the pre-match betting insights.
Disclaimer: This report is generated by Artificial Intelligence and utilises historical data, statistical models, and algorithmic predictions without the influence of human emotions or biases. It is intended for informational purposes only. The predictions should not be seen as a guarantee of results. Betting involves risk and should be approached responsibly.
