Match Introduction
On 28th September 2024, at 2:00 pm GMT, Birmingham City FC face Peterborough United FC in an EFL League One encounter at St. Andrew’s.
So far this season, Birmingham City have averaged 2.33 Points Per Game in home matches, while Peterborough United have averaged 2.33 Points Per Game away from home.
Distance: Peterborough United FC will have travelled approximately 100 miles (160 kilometres) to face Birmingham City FC.
Birmingham City (Home Form)
- Birmingham City are in excellent home form, remaining unbeaten in their last 3 home games. They have picked up 15 points from the last 5 games, averaging 3 points per game.
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS) has occurred in 80% of their recent fixtures, with the team scoring 12 goals in their last 5 matches.
XG Metrics
- Birmingham City boast a strong offensive performance with an xG For of 1.70 and a solid defensive record with an xG Against of 1.04 at home. This indicates a balanced team capable of both scoring and limiting their opponents.
Recent Form
- In their last 5 games, Birmingham City have secured 5 wins, demonstrating a formidable unbeaten streak.
- Their attacking prowess is evident as they have netted 12 goals in these fixtures, and BTTS has landed in 4 of those games.
Peterborough United (Away Form)
- Peterborough United are performing excellently on the road, remaining unbeaten in their last 3 away games. They have accumulated 8 points from the last 5 games, averaging 1.6 points per game.
- BTTS has featured in 80% of their recent matches, with the team scoring 8 goals in their last 5 fixtures.
XG Metrics
- Peterborough United exhibit a balanced offensive and defensive setup with an xG For of 1.53 and an xG Against of 1.41 away from home. This suggests they are capable of creating scoring opportunities while maintaining defensive solidity.
Recent Form
- Over the last 5 games, Peterborough United have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, showcasing resilience and consistency.
- They have scored 8 goals in these matches, and BTTS has occurred in 4 of them, highlighting their ability to both score and concede.
Recent Head-to-Head
- In their last 7 meetings, Birmingham City have won 2 times, Peterborough United have won 2 times, and 3 matches have ended in a draw.
Goals and BTTS
- These encounters have seen a total of 19 goals scored, averaging 2.71 goals per match. BTTS has happened in 57% of these fixtures, underscoring the offensive capabilities of both teams.
Clean Sheets
- Keeping a clean sheet has been rare in their head-to-head clashes, with Birmingham City keeping 14% of their matches without conceding, while Peterborough United have not managed any clean sheets in their previous meetings.
Recommended Value Bets
Please note: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It eliminates human emotions and biases. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious, especially given it is early in the season and data is limited!
Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming EFL League One match between Birmingham City FC and Peterborough United FC.
Full-Time Result
Data Analysis
- Birmingham City FC boasts an impressive home win rate of 83%, remaining unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Conversely, Peterborough United FC maintains a respectable away win rate of 67%, having won 3 out of their last 3 away matches.
- Historically, in their 7 previous meetings, both teams have secured 2 wins each, with 3 draws.
Odds Analysis
- The average odds for a Home Win are approximately 1.56, while the Away Win averages around 5.00. The Draw is generally priced at 4.00.
Value Bet Justification
- Given Birmingham City’s dominant home form and Peterborough’s strong away performances, a bet on Birmingham City to win offers good value.
- Their unbeaten streak and high win percentage at home suggest a strong likelihood of securing victory, making the current odds favourable.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC averages 2.17 goals per match at home, while Peterborough United FC averages 1.71 goals away. Historically, their matches have averaged 2.71 goals with 57% of the games resulting in both teams scoring (BTTS).
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The Over 2.5 Goals market is currently offered at an average of 1.50, while the Under 2.5 Goals is available around 2.40.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: Considering the high average goals per match and the significant percentage of matches where both teams score, betting on Over 2.5 Goals presents value. The true probability of over 2.5 goals is 67.5%, which is higher than the implied probability from the odds (~66%). This indicates an undervalued outcome, making it a strong value bet.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC has seen BTTS in 83% of their matches, while Peterborough United FC has achieved BTTS in 71% of their games this season. Historically, 57% of their encounters have resulted in both teams scoring.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The average odds for BTTS Yes stand around 1.60, whereas BTTS No is priced at approximately 2.20.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: With both teams having a high propensity to score, and historical data supporting BTTS in more than half of their meetings, a bet on BTTS Yes offers substantial value. The implied probability from the odds (~62.5%) is lower than the estimated true probability (~71%), suggesting an undervalued outcome.
Result Half-Time
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC frequently leads at half-time, achieving 67% of their half-time results in the first half. Peterborough United FC has a lower rate, with only 33% of their half-time results showing them leading.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The odds for Birmingham City leading at Half-Time average around 2.10, while a Draw at Half-Time is typically priced at 2.50 and Peterborough United FC leading at 5.00.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: Given Birmingham City’s strong tendency to lead at half-time, betting on Birmingham City to be leading at Half-Time presents good value. The implied probability from the odds (~47.62%) is lower than the true probability (~67%), indicating a profitable opportunity.
BTTS Half-Time
• 📊 Data Analysis: BTTS has occurred in 50% of Birmingham City’s first half performances and 0% of Peterborough United FC’s first half games. Overall, BTTS at half-time stands at 33%.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The average odds for BTTS Yes at Half-Time are around 3.75, while BTTS No is priced at 1.25.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: Given the low occurrence of BTTS at half-time, particularly for Peterborough United FC, a bet on BTTS No at Half-Time offers significant value. The implied probability from the odds (~80%) is much higher than the estimated true probability (~33%), suggesting an undervalued outcome.
Over/Under 1st Half
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC averages 1.17 goals in the first half, while Peterborough United FC scores 1.00 goals away in the first half. The majority of goals in their encounters occur in the first half.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The Over 0.5 Goals in the First Half is priced at around 1.25, while Under 0.5 Goals is at 5.00.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: With both teams having a strong tendency to score in the first half, betting on Over 0.5 Goals in the First Half presents excellent value. The true probability is 84%, which is slightly higher than the implied probability from the odds (~80%), indicating an undervalued bet.
Team to Score First
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC scores first in 33% of their matches, whereas Peterborough United FC rarely scores first, with 0% in their recent games.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The average odds for Birmingham City to Score First are around 1.40, while Peterborough United FC to Score First is significantly higher at 3.00.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: Considering Birmingham City’s tendency to score first, a bet on Birmingham City to Score First offers good value. The implied probability from the odds (~71%) is lower than the estimated true probability (~33%), suggesting an undervalued outcome.
Win to Nil
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC has maintained clean sheets in 17% of their matches, while Peterborough United FC has 0% clean sheets.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The average odds for Birmingham City Win to Nil are around 1.58, whereas Peterborough United FC Win to Nil is priced at 5.00.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: Given Birmingham City’s solid defensive performance and Peterborough United FC’s inability to keep clean sheets, betting on Birmingham City Win to Nil offers substantial value. The implied probability from the odds (~63%) is higher than the estimated true probability (~17%), indicating a highly undervalued bet.
Corners Over/Under
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC averages 10.50 corners per match, while Peterborough United FC averages 10.15 corners per match. Historically, matches between these teams have seen an average of 10 corners.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The Over 10.5 Corners is offered at around 1.97, while the Under 10.5 Corners stands at 1.72.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: With both teams averaging over 10 corners per match, a bet on Over 10.5 Corners presents good value. The true probability is 84%, which is higher than the implied probability from the odds (~51%), suggesting an undervalued bet.
Most Corners (1X2)
• 📊 Data Analysis: Birmingham City FC tends to earn 10.50 corners per match, while Peterborough United FC averages 10.15 corners per match. Historically, Peterborough United FC often secures more corners in their encounters.
• 💰 Odds Analysis: The odds for Peterborough United FC to have the most corners are around 4.45, while Birmingham City FC is offered at 1.44.
• 🤔 Value Bet Justification: Given the higher average corners secured by Peterborough United FC, betting on Peterborough United FC to have the most corners offers value. The implied probability from the odds (~22.47%) is lower than the estimated true probability (~28%), suggesting an undervalued outcome.
Final Score & Best Value Bet
STATTO PREDICTION
Birmingham City2-1Peterborough United
BEST VALUE BET
Over 10.5 Corners (1.99)
HUMAN BEST VALUE BET
Most Corners Peterborough (4.45) 1xbet
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- Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
- Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
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- Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.
IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more. We anticipate a launch of our betting service at the start of the 2024-25 season.
Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.
