Match Introduction
Chesterfield FC will face Notts County FC in an EFL League Two encounter at the SMH Group Stadium on Saturday, October 12, 2024, at 12:30 pm.
Chesterfield currently sit 12th in the table, while Notts County hold 5th place. Chesterfield have shown resilience at home but are prone to defensive lapses, while Notts County have been strong on the road and are looking to solidify their position in the top half of the table.
This match presents an interesting tactical battle.
Chesterfield have been prolific in front of goal but are vulnerable defensively, particularly in the second half. Notts County, meanwhile, have displayed solid first-half performances but tend to fade after the break, which could be a key factor in this match.
Chesterfield FC Home Form
At home, Chesterfield FC have played 5 games this season:
- Goals: Chesterfield have scored an average of 1.40 goals per game at home while conceding 1.20 goals per game.
- xG (Expected Goals): Their average xG at home is 1.30, indicating they are performing close to expected in terms of creating chances.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their average xGA is 0.83, suggesting that while they concede, they may be unlucky or suffer from defensive inefficiencies.
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 100% of their home matches, which highlights their inability to keep a clean sheet, but also their attacking prowess.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 40% of their home games have gone over 2.5 goals, indicating a mixed trend regarding the total goal market.
- First Half Goals: 80% of their home matches have featured at least one first-half goal, with 40% having two or more first-half goals.
Notts County FC Away Form
Away from home, Notts County FC have also played 5 games this season:
- Goals: Notts County have averaged 1.80 goals per game on the road while conceding 0.80 goals per game, reflecting a solid attack and defence.
- xG (Expected Goals): Their average xG away from home is 1.40, suggesting they are efficiently converting chances.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their average xGA is 1.33, indicating they may concede more than they should be based on chances allowed.
- BTTS: Both teams have scored in 60% of Notts County’s away matches.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 40% of their away games have gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting a balanced approach in their matches.
- First Half Goals: 80% of Notts County’s away matches have featured at least one first-half goal, and 60% have had two or more first-half goals.
Recommended Bets
This AI analysis uses extensive historical data, live bookmaker odds, and statistical modelling to identify potential value bets for the upcoming match between Chesterfield FC and Notts County FC.
Full-Time Result
Both teams have strengths, with Chesterfield scoring consistently at home and Notts County solid defensively on the road. The implied probability from Chesterfield’s odds (51.28%) suggests value if Chesterfield can capitalize on home advantage and Notts County’s second-half vulnerability.
- Value Bet Justification: Chesterfield’s home form, combined with Notts County’s dip in second-half performance, makes a Chesterfield win a potential value bet.
- Odds: Chesterfield to Win @ 1.95
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Given Chesterfield’s tendency for both teams to score and Notts County’s solid defence, this market is finely balanced. The implied probability for Over 2.5 goals (62.5%) seems high given Chesterfield’s mixed goal output at home.
- Value Bet Justification: With both teams displaying solid defensive metrics, Under 2.5 goals offers value.
- Odds: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.35
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Chesterfield’s games have all seen both teams score, while Notts County have conceded in 60% of their away games. The implied probability for BTTS (Yes) is 64.52%, which aligns well with the data.
- Value Bet Justification: Chesterfield’s inability to keep clean sheets and Notts County’s decent goal-scoring form make BTTS (Yes) a solid bet.
- Odds: BTTS (Yes) @ 1.55
BTTS in the 1st Half
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring first halves. Chesterfield’s and Notts County’s first-half data support the notion that there could be early goals.
- Value Bet Justification: The high percentage of first-half goals makes BTTS (Yes) in the 1st Half an attractive option.
- Odds: BTTS (Yes) in the 1st Half @ 3.60
Clean Sheet – Chesterfield FC
Given Chesterfield’s 100% BTTS record, a clean sheet seems unlikely for them in this fixture.
- Value Bet Justification: Chesterfield are unlikely to keep a clean sheet given their defensive vulnerabilities.
- Odds: No Clean Sheet for Chesterfield @ 1.30
Clean Sheet – Notts County FC
Notts County’s defensive record on the road is solid, and there is a possibility they could keep Chesterfield at bay.
- Value Bet Justification: With their strong defensive away form, Notts County keeping a clean sheet could offer value.
- Odds: Notts County to Keep a Clean Sheet @ 5.00
Team to Score First
Chesterfield’s strong home attack makes them the more likely candidate to open the scoring, but Notts County’s defensive record adds uncertainty.
- Value Bet Justification: Chesterfield’s early scoring trend at home suggests they are likely to score first.
- Odds: Chesterfield to Score First @ 1.67
Over/Under 2nd Half Goals
Notts County’s tendency to struggle in the second half opens up opportunities for Chesterfield to score later on.
- Value Bet Justification: The second half could see more goals given Notts County’s vulnerability after the break.
- Odds: Over 1.5 Second Half Goals @ 1.80
Win to Nil – Chesterfield FC
Considering Chesterfield’s strong goal-scoring record and Notts County’s occasional defensive lapses, this is a long-shot bet but may offer value.
- Value Bet Justification: If Chesterfield can take control and prevent Notts County from scoring, a win to nil is possible.
- Odds: Chesterfield to Win to Nil @ 3.90
Final Score & Best Value Bet
Both teams are expected to play a competitive match with attacking intent. Chesterfield’s scoring record and Notts County’s away form will make this a tight encounter, but Chesterfield’s home advantage could edge them through.
STATTO PREDICTION
Chesterfield2-1Notts County
BEST VALUE BET
Chesterfield To Win (1.95)
HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Under 2.5 Goals (1.95)
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IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more. We anticipate a launch of our betting service at the start of the 2024-25 season.
Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.
