Crystal Palace Vs Fulham: Predictions, Extensive Match Stats, And Value Bets

Match Introduction

Crystal Palace take on Fulham in the Premier League on Saturday, November 9, 2024, at Selhurst Park, with kick-off scheduled for 3:00 pm.

Palace approach this match with a challenging home record, having managed only one win in five home games and averaging just 0.6 goals scored per game at Selhurst Park.

Fulham, meanwhile, have been inconsistent on the road, securing one win, two draws, and two losses while averaging one goal scored and 1.2 goals conceded per away game.

Crystal Palace Home Data

Palace has played 5 home games this season at Selhurst Park.

Goals: Crystal Palace has scored an average of 0.6 goals per game at home and conceded 1 goal per game. This reflects their challenges in attacking productivity while maintaining moderate defensive stability at Selhurst Park.
xG (Expected Goals): Palace’s xG at home is 1.37, showing that while they create reasonable chances, they underperform in finishing. Their actual scoring rate falls below this expected output, highlighting inefficiency in converting chances.
xGA (Expected Goals Against): Palace’s xGA at home is 1.40, indicating that their defense performs close to expectations, conceding in line with the quality of chances allowed.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Only 20% of Palace’s home matches have seen both teams score. This aligns with their low-scoring tendency and modest defensive performance, often resulting in matches where only one side finds the net.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 20% of Palace’s home games have exceeded 2.5 goals, suggesting a pattern of low-scoring games at Selhurst Park, consistent with their conservative approach.
First Half Goals: 60% of Palace’s home games have seen a clean sheet in the first half, underscoring their tendency for low action in the opening 45 minutes.

Key Insights:

Low-Scoring Home Matches: Crystal Palace’s matches at Selhurst Park are consistently low-scoring, with only 20% exceeding 2.5 goals. This suggests potential value in betting on Under 2.5 Goals for home fixtures.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): With a low BTTS rate of 20% at home, Crystal Palace’s matches often feature only one team scoring, presenting potential value in BTTS No markets.
Second Half Goals: Crystal Palace has shown a higher tendency to score in the second half, while also conceding more frequently during this period. This indicates potential value in betting on Second-Half Goals as opposed to first-half markets.
Corners: Matches at Selhurst Park feature high corner activity, with 80% of home games surpassing 6.5 corners. This trend highlights potential value in Over 6.5 Corners bets.
Cards: Crystal Palace averages more cards in the second half, suggesting potential value in second-half card markets, particularly if they are trailing or playing against stronger opposition.

Fulham Away Data

Fulham have played 5 away games this season.

Goals: Fulham has scored an average of 1 goal per game away and conceded 1.2 goals per game. These figures highlight their moderate defensive performance but limited offensive output on the road.
xG (Expected Goals): Fulham’s xG in away games is 1.15, indicating that they generate fewer quality scoring chances when playing away, consistent with their actual scoring rate.
xGA (Expected Goals Against): Fulham’s xGA in away games is 1.4, showing that they allow slightly more quality chances against them, aligning closely with their actual concession rate.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 60% of Fulham’s away matches. This suggests a moderate tendency for goal exchanges in away games but lower than their overall BTTS rate.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Only 20% of Fulham’s away games have gone over 2.5 goals, reinforcing a low-scoring trend in their away fixtures.
First Half Goals: 60% of Fulham’s away games have ended in a 0-0 draw at halftime, showing a consistent pattern of slow starts and low first-half goal involvement.

Key Insights:

Low Scoring and Tight Defenses: Fulham’s away games tend to be low-scoring, with only 20% exceeding 2.5 goals and an average of 2.2 total goals per match. This makes Under 2.5 Goals a valuable market in their away fixtures.
Strong First-Half Draw Tendency: Fulham has drawn 100% of their away games at halftime, with 60% ending in a 0-0 score by the break. This supports Halftime Draw as a likely outcome and potentially First-Half 0-0 bets in tight matchups.
Second-Half Action: Fulham’s away matches show a higher rate of goals and cards in the second half, with 80% of games seeing more second-half goals. Second-Half Goals and Second-Half Cards markets hold value in these scenarios.
Late Goals: Fulham has a notable trend for scoring and conceding in the final 10 minutes of away matches, indicating potential value in Goal After 75th Minute markets.
Corners: Fulham’s away games frequently feature high corner counts, with 80% of matches seeing over 8.5 corners. While Fulham earns only 4.8 corners on average in away games, total Over 10.5 Corners markets can be valuable.
Second-Half Cards: Fulham’s second-half bookings are significantly higher than in the first half, averaging 2 cards in this period. Second-Half Cards markets or Over 1.5 Fulham Cards for the second half may offer value.
Frequent 1-1 Scoreline: The 1-1 scoreline is the most common full-time result in Fulham’s away matches, appearing 40% of the time. 1-1 Exact Score could be valuable in balanced matchups.

Match Betting Section

Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming Premier League match between Crystal Palace and Fulham at Selhurst Park.

Remember, with value betting, you are placing bets that have a greater chance of winning than the implied odds, giving you an edge over the bookmakers. It’s not necessarily the result you would expect.

Full-Time Result – Draw

Odds: 3.50
Implied Probability: 28.6%
Statistical Justification: Crystal Palace’s poor home form, coupled with Fulham’s moderate away performance, makes a draw more likely than the implied probability. Both teams have struggled to secure decisive results in similar matches, and the historical head-to-head data supports a balanced outcome.
Value Bet: The draw represents value, as the statistical likelihood is higher than the implied probability of 28.6%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Under 2.5

Odds: 1.88
Implied Probability: 53.2%
Statistical Justification: Fulham’s away games have gone under 2.5 goals in 80% of matches, and Crystal Palace’s low scoring at home suggests a low-scoring game. The average total goals for each team points to a match with limited offensive action.
Value Bet: This market offers strong value, as the actual probability for under 2.5 goals is significantly higher than implied by the odds.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No

Odds: 2.05
Implied Probability: 48.8%
Statistical Justification: Fulham’s BTTS rate away from home is only 60%, and Crystal Palace has a low BTTS rate of 20% at home. The combination of Fulham’s limited scoring and Palace’s defensive tendencies at home make BTTS No a favorable option.
Value Bet: BTTS No is a recommended bet here, with the statistical likelihood exceeding the bookmaker’s implied probability.

BTTS 1st Half – No Bet

Odds: 1.20
Implied Probability: 80%
Statistical Justification: Both teams rarely score in the first half, with Fulham’s away games and Palace’s home games often seeing few early goals.
No Bet: Given the low probability of both teams scoring in the first half, this market holds little value despite the short odds.

BTTS 2nd Half – No Bet

Odds: 1.33
Implied Probability: 70%
Statistical Justification: With limited scoring in the second half for both teams, this market aligns closely with statistical trends.
No Bet: The implied probability is close to actual performance, making this market unattractive.

Over/Under 1st Half – Over 0.5 Goals

Odds: 1.38
Implied Probability: 72.5%
Statistical Justification: While there’s a possibility of early action, data suggests a low-scoring first half is more likely.
No Bet: Despite the odds, the likelihood of significant first-half action remains low, making this market less valuable.

Result 1st Half – Draw

Odds: 2.20
Implied Probability: 45.5%
Statistical Justification: Fulham has drawn the first half in 100% of away games, and Crystal Palace has shown similar tendencies in their home matches, supporting a likely halftime draw.
Value Bet: The probability of a first-half draw is higher than the implied probability, making this a strong value market.

Double Chance – Crystal Palace/Draw

Odds: 1.51
Implied Probability: 66.2%
Statistical Justification: Crystal Palace’s home form gives them a slight edge in securing at least a draw.
No Bet: While this market is relatively safe, the low odds reduce its overall value.

Result 2nd Half – No Bet

Odds: Varies by team
Implied Probability: Varies
Statistical Justification: There is no strong indication of either team dominating the second half, making this market hard to predict with confidence.
No Bet: Lack of clear statistical support makes this market unappealing.

Clean Sheet – Fulham (No)

Odds: 1.29
Implied Probability: 77.5%
Statistical Justification: With Fulham’s low clean sheet rate away from home, it’s likely they’ll concede.
Value Bet: The lack of clean sheets on the road for Fulham makes betting against a clean sheet a reasonable option.

Win to Nil – No Bet

Odds: Varies by team
Statistical Justification: Both teams have shown limited ability to secure wins without conceding, making this a less reliable market.
No Bet: The stats do not support this market as a value bet.

Corners 1×2 – No Bet

Odds: 1.85
Statistical Justification: Both teams display inconsistent corner performances, lacking a clear trend.
No Bet: Due to variability in corner performance, this market doesn’t provide a strong edge.

Corners Over/Under 10.5 – Over

Odds: 1.92
Implied Probability: 52%
Statistical Justification: Fulham’s away games average a high corner count, which aligns well with the likelihood of a total over 10.5 corners.
Value Bet: The historical corner averages for both teams suggest over 10.5 corners as a valuable market.

Final Score & Best Value Bet

STATTO PREDICTION
Crystal Palace1-1Fulham

BEST VALUE BET
Under 2.5 Goals (1.88)

HANDPICKED VALUE BET
F/H Result – Draw (2.20)

If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:

Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.

IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.

Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.