Derby County Vs Swansea City: Predictions, Extensive Match Stats, And Value Bets

Match Introduction

Derby County take on Swansea City in the EFL Championship on Wednesday, November 27, 2024, at Pride Park Stadium, with kick-off scheduled for 8:00 pm.

Derby County come into this match with a solid home record, winning 57% of their matches at Pride Park this season while averaging 1.57 goals per game and conceding just 0.71 goals per game.

Swansea City, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, winning just 25% of their away matches while averaging only 0.5 goals per game and conceding 0.88 goals per game.

Derby County Home Data

Derby County have played 7 home games this season, showcasing a strong home advantage with solid defensive performances and efficient goal-scoring at Pride Park Stadium.

Goals: Derby County scores an average of 1.57 goals per game at home and concedes 0.71 goals per game. Their xG of 1.33 aligns with this, reflecting efficient conversion of chances. Defensively, their xGA of 1.22 highlights a well-organized backline.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 43% of Derby’s home matches, supported by their 57% clean sheet rate. This demonstrates their defensive discipline and ability to control games.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
- Over 1.5 Goals: 71% of Derby’s home matches exceed this threshold.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Only 29% of home games exceed 2.5 goals, emphasizing their low-scoring nature.
- Under 2.5 Goals: A significant 71% fall under this mark, showing their preference for controlled, low-scoring matches.
First Half Goals: Derby averages 0.57 goals scored and 0.29 goals conceded in the first half at home. 43% of first halves end with Derby leading 1-0, highlighting their ability to manage the early phases of games.
Second Half Goals: Derby is more productive after halftime, scoring 1.00 goals on average in the second half and conceding only 0.43 goals. The second half accounts for 63% of their total goals, particularly between the 51st and 70th minutes (25%).
Goal Timings: Derby is most likely to score between 51’-70’ (25%) and 71’-90’ (15%) but are vulnerable defensively in the final 20 minutes, conceding 40% of their goals after the 71st minute.
Corners: Derby averages 6.29 corners per match at home. 86% of home matches feature over 7.5 total corners, making set pieces a key aspect of their attacking strategy.
Cards: Derby’s home matches average 3.86 total cards, with Derby responsible for 1.71 cards per game. Most bookings occur in the second half, reflecting an increase in intensity as the game progresses.
Frequent Scorelines: Common results include 1-0 and 1-1, which occur in 58% of Derby’s home matches, reinforcing their tendency to control games defensively while maintaining attacking efficiency.

Key Insights:

Defensive Strength: Derby’s home games are typically low-scoring, with 71% under 2.5 goals and 57% clean sheets.
Second Half Dominance: Derby is more productive in the second half, scoring 1.00 goals and conceding only 0.43 on average.
Late Vulnerabilities: Derby is susceptible to conceding in the final 20 minutes, with 40% of goals against occurring after the 71st minute.
Corners Advantage: Derby leverages set pieces effectively, with 86% of matches exceeding 7.5 corners.
Efficient Scoring: Derby converts 16% of their shots, needing just 6.36 shots to score a goal at home.
Frequent Scorelines: 1-0 or 1-1 are the most common results, occurring in 58% of home matches.

Swansea City Away Data

Swansea City have played 8 away games this season in the Championship, with inconsistent performances characterised by low-scoring games and defensive resilience.

Goals: Swansea scores an average of 0.5 goals per game away from home and concedes 0.88 goals per game. Their xG of 1.04 indicates underperformance in converting chances, while their xGA of 1.42 suggests they are slightly overperforming defensively.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): BTTS has occurred in only 25% of Swansea’s away matches, reflecting their inability to score regularly and their solid defensive performances.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
- Over 0.5 Goals: 88% of away matches.
- Over 1.5 Goals: 25%, indicating low overall scoring.
- Over 2.5 Goals: 25%, reinforcing the trend of low-scoring games.
- Under 2.5 Goals: 75%, showcasing a preference for tight, controlled matches.
First Half Goals: Swansea averages 0.38 goals scored and 0.63 goals conceded in the first half of away games. Their first-half clean sheet rate is 38%, and 50% of first halves end with a 1-0 scoreline against them.
Second Half Goals: Swansea struggles offensively in the second half, scoring just 0.13 goals per game away while conceding 0.25 goals per game. Their second-half clean sheet rate of 75% reflects improved defensive stability.
Goal Timings:
- Most goals scored in the first 10 minutes (29%), highlighting strong starts.
- Defensive vulnerabilities are significant in the final 20 minutes, where 50% of goals conceded occur.
Corners: Swansea’s away matches average 11.01 total corners per game, with Swansea earning 5.88 corners per match. 50% of away matches exceed 6.5 corners earned.
Cards: Swansea receives 2.5 cards per game away from home, higher than their home average. Most bookings occur in the second half, where they average 1.75 cards per game.
Frequent Scorelines:
- Full-Time: 1-0 is the most frequent away result, occurring in 63% of matches.
- Half-Time: 1-0 is the most common scoreline at halftime (50%).

Key Insights:

Low Scoring: Swansea’s away matches are predominantly low-scoring, with 75% under 2.5 goals and 25% exceeding 1.5 goals.
BTTS Trends: BTTS occurs in only 25% of away games, highlighting a strong defensive presence but poor offensive output.
First Half Strength: Swansea starts strong, with 29% of goals scored in the first 10 minutes.
- However, 50% of first halves end 1-0 in favor of the opposition.
Second Half Weakness: Swansea’s offensive output drops significantly in the second half, with just 0.13 goals scored per game.
- Defensive resilience improves, with a 75% second-half clean sheet rate.
Corners Performance: Swansea earns 5.88 corners per game away and contributes to high corner totals, with 88% of matches exceeding 8.5 corners.
Discipline Issues: Swansea averages 2.5 cards per game away, with the majority occurring in the second half (1.75 per match).
Frequent Scorelines: 1-0 is the most common away result, occurring in 63% of matches, making it the clearest pattern in their results.

Match Betting Section

Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming EFL Championship match between Derby County and Swansea City at Pride Park Stadium on Wednesday, November 27, 2024.

Remember, with value betting, you are placing bets that have a greater chance of winning than the implied odds, giving you an edge over the bookmakers. It’s not necessarily the result you would expect.

Full-Time Result – Derby County to Win

Odds: 2.63
Implied Probability: 38.02%
Statistical Justification: Derby’s strong home form (57% win rate) and Swansea’s struggles away (25% win rate) make Derby the favorites. Derby has scored 1.57 goals per game at home, compared to Swansea’s 0.5 goals per game away.
Value Bet: Yes. The true probability (57%) exceeds the implied probability (38.02%), offering good value on a Derby County win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Under 2.5

Odds: 1.66
Implied Probability: 60.24%
Statistical Justification: Derby’s home matches and Swansea’s away matches are predominantly low-scoring, with 73% of games featuring fewer than 2.5 goals. Swansea’s average goals per game away is only 1.38.
Value Bet: Yes. The true probability (73%) exceeds the implied probability (60.24%), making this a value bet.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No

Odds: 1.87
Implied Probability: 53.48%
Statistical Justification: Swansea has failed to score in 75% of away matches, and Derby has kept clean sheets in 57% of home matches. This trend suggests low BTTS potential.
Value Bet: Yes. The statistical likelihood (66%) exceeds the implied probability (53.48%), making BTTS No a value bet.

BTTS 1st Half

Odds: 5.00
Implied Probability: 20%
Statistical Justification: Derby and Swansea have both struggled to score in the first half, with only 19% of their matches seeing BTTS in the opening 45 minutes.
No Bet: The low probability of this event occurring makes it a poor market to target.

BTTS 2nd Half

Odds: 3.75
Implied Probability: 26.67%
Statistical Justification: Neither team has shown consistent second-half scoring trends, with Swansea averaging just 0.13 goals per game in the second half away.
No Bet: The implied probability aligns with the statistical likelihood, offering no clear value.

Over/Under 1st Half – Over 0.5 Goals

Odds: 1.44
Implied Probability: 69.44%
Statistical Justification: Derby has scored in 71% of first halves at home, but Swansea’s away struggles limit first-half action.
No Bet: While there’s a moderate probability of first-half goals, the short odds reduce value.

Result 1st Half – Draw

Odds: 2.00
Implied Probability: 50%
Statistical Justification: Both teams have seen a high percentage of first halves ending level, particularly 0-0 or 1-1.
No Bet: The odds accurately reflect the probability, offering no value.

Double Chance – Derby County/Draw (1X)

Odds: 1.44
Implied Probability: 69.44%
Statistical Justification: Derby’s strong home form and Swansea’s inconsistent away performance make this a secure market.
Value Bet: Yes. With a true probability of 78%, this market offers value.

Result 2nd Half – Derby County to Win

Odds: 2.75
Implied Probability: 36.36%
Statistical Justification: Derby tends to grow into games, outscoring opponents in the second half at home. Swansea’s second-half away form is poor, with only 0.13 goals scored per game.
Value Bet: Yes. The true probability (56%) exceeds the implied probability (36.36%).

Over/Under 2nd Half – Over 1.5 Goals

Odds: 2.50
Implied Probability: 40%
Statistical Justification: Derby’s second halves at home average 1.43 goals, and Swansea’s defensive lapses late in games could lead to higher scoring.
No Bet: The statistical likelihood aligns with the implied probability, offering no value.

Team to Score First – Derby County

Odds: 1.83
Implied Probability: 54.64%
Statistical Justification: Derby has scored first in 71% of home matches, and Swansea has conceded first in 75% of away games.
Value Bet: Yes. The statistical probability exceeds the implied probability.

Clean Sheet – Derby County

Odds: 2.75
Implied Probability: 36.36%
Statistical Justification: Derby has kept clean sheets in 57% of home matches, while Swansea has failed to score in 75% of away games.
Value Bet: Yes. The likelihood of a Derby clean sheet supports this bet.

Win to Nil – Derby County

Odds: 3.80
Implied Probability: 26.32%
Statistical Justification: Derby’s home defensive strength and Swansea’s poor scoring away make this a plausible outcome.
Value Bet: Yes. The true probability (34%) exceeds the implied probability.

Corners Over/Under 10.5 – Over

Odds: 1.94
Implied Probability: 51.55%
Statistical Justification: Both teams average high corner counts, with Derby’s home games and Swansea’s away games exceeding 10.5 corners in 68% of matches.
Value Bet: Yes. The true probability exceeds the implied probability.

Final Score & Best Value Bet

STATTO PREDICTION
Derby2-0Swansea City

BEST VALUE BET
Derby Home Win (2.63)

HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Derby Win 2nd Half (2.75)

If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:

Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.

IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.

Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.