Lincoln City vs Northampton Town: Match Stats and Value Bets

Match Introduction

Lincoln City FC take on Northampton Town FC in the EFL League One on Tuesday, October 29, 2024, at the LNER Stadium, with kick-off scheduled for 7:45 pm.

Lincoln City FC have displayed a strong home performance this season, winning 50% of their matches at home and averaging 1.67 goals scored per game.

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Northampton Town FC, in contrast, have struggled to secure consistent results on the road, winning just 20% of their away games and conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match.

Lincoln City Home Data

Lincoln City have played 6 home games this season, demonstrating fluctuating performance but a moderate scoring output.

• Goals: Lincoln City averages 1.67 goals per game at home while conceding 1.33 goals per game. This indicates a solid attacking presence at Sincil Bank but a moderate defensive vulnerability, resulting in relatively high-scoring home matches.
• xG (Expected Goals): Lincoln’s xG at home is 1.34, closely aligning with their actual scoring rate, indicating that they are performing near their expected potential in attack.
• xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their xGA at home is 0.97, suggesting that Lincoln’s defense is slightly underperforming, conceding marginally more than expected based on the quality of opponent chances.
• BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 83% of Lincoln City’s home games. This high BTTS rate suggests Lincoln’s matches at Sincil Bank tend to see goals from both sides, likely due to a mix of attacking effectiveness and defensive lapses.
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 83% of Lincoln’s home matches have gone over 2.5 goals, indicating a strong trend toward higher-scoring games at home.
• First Half Goals: Lincoln’s home games have featured first-half goals in 67% of matches. Although they have a disciplined defense, there is moderate first-half activity, with a tendency for the scoring to increase in the second half.

Key Insights:

• Scoring and Conceding Patterns: Lincoln shows balanced attacking and defensive performance at home, with a consistent scoring rate (1.67 goals per game) but a similarly high BTTS rate of 83%, suggesting frequent goal exchanges.
• Goal Timing: Lincoln is more likely to score in the mid-to-late stages of each half, peaking around the 31-40 and 41-50 minute marks. Conversely, they exhibit defensive vulnerabilities early and late in the game, with 27% of goals conceded between the 71-80 minute mark.
• Corners: Matches at Sincil Bank frequently involve high corner counts, with 83% of home games seeing over 7.5 corners. Lincoln generates an average of 6.17 corners at home compared to 4.33 away, indicating strong set-piece opportunities in home matches.
• Cards and Discipline: Lincoln City averages 1.67 cards per game at home, which is lower than their away card rate (3.17). Their opponents also receive an average of 1.92 cards per match, resulting in moderate card activity and indicating a more disciplined approach at home.
• Common Scorelines: The most frequent scoreline at Sincil Bank has been 2-1, indicating a propensity for narrow victories with moderate to high scoring.
• Shot Accuracy: Lincoln averages 10.33 shots per game at home, with 6.17 shots on target. Their shot conversion rate of 16% reflects solid accuracy, especially when compared to their away performance.

Northampton Town Away Data

Northampton Town have played 5 away games this season, demonstrating a mixed performance in both attack and defense.

• Goals: Northampton Town averages 1.4 goals scored per game away from home while conceding 1.8 goals per game. This indicates a reasonable offensive output but a high vulnerability in defense when playing away, contributing to higher-scoring away games.
• xG (Expected Goals): Northampton’s xG for away games is 1.09, aligning closely with their scoring rate of 1.4 goals per game, suggesting they convert chances slightly above expectations.
• xGA (Expected Goals Against): Northampton’s xGA in away games is 1.64, aligning with their actual goals conceded rate of 1.8 goals per game, which reflects a defensive weakness that opponents can exploit.
• BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 80% of Northampton Town’s away matches. This high BTTS rate reflects the regular goal exchange pattern in their away games.
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 60% of Northampton’s away games have gone over 2.5 goals, highlighting a trend toward higher-scoring encounters on the road.
• First Half Goals: 40% of away games for Northampton have featured at least one goal in the first half, with most scoring and conceding activity typically increasing in the second half.

Key Insights:

• High BTTS Rate in Away Games: With BTTS occurring in 80% of away matches, Northampton’s games regularly see goals from both sides, making the BTTS market attractive for their away fixtures.
• Increased Second-Half Activity: Northampton is more active in the second half, both scoring and conceding more goals after the break. This suggests value in betting on “Second Half – Northampton to Score” or “Second Half Over 1.5 Goals” in away games.
• Goal Timing Patterns: The highest concentration of Northampton’s goals and concessions occurs in the last 10 minutes of each half. This trend could support bets on “Goal After 75th Minute” or “Both Teams to Score – Second Half.”
• Higher Cards in Second Half Away: Northampton averages 2.2 cards in the second half of away games, pointing to discipline issues that could lead to tactical fouls. Betting on “Over 1.5 Second Half Cards” for Northampton may offer value.
• High Goal Kick Rate in Away Games: Northampton’s defense faces frequent pressure, evidenced by an average of 10.67 goal kicks per away game, reflecting consistent defensive challenges.
• Frequent High-Scoring Draws and Losses: The most common away scorelines include draws like 2-2 and losses with large margins, such as 1-3 and 4-1, indicating Northampton’s vulnerability to high-scoring outcomes. Betting on “Away Team to Lose and Over 2.5 Goals” could be valuable.
• Moderate Corner Generation: Northampton averages only 3.2 corners per game in away matches, with fewer corners than opponents in 60% of cases, showing limited set-piece opportunities on the road.
• Common Scorelines: The most frequent full-time scorelines in Northampton’s away games include 2-2, 1-3, and 4-1, reflecting high-scoring draws or losses. This indicates value in betting on “Away Team to Concede Over 2.5 Goals” or exact score bets like 2-2 and 1-3 in away fixtures.
• Frequent High Total Goals: With 60% of away games seeing over 2.5 goals and a match average of 3.2 goals per away game, the Over 2.5 Goals market offers value for Northampton’s away games.
• Slow Starts in Away Games: Northampton’s games tend to stay level after the first 10 minutes, with only 20% of away matches featuring an early goal. Betting on “Under 0.5 Goals in First 10 Minutes” could be profitable in these matches.

Match Betting Section

Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming EFL League One match between Lincoln City and Northampton Town at LNER Stadium.

Full-Time Result – Lincoln City to Win

• Odds: 1.75
• Implied Probability: 57%
• Statistical Justification: Lincoln’s home win rate stands at 50%, while Northampton has only a 20% away win rate, placing Lincoln as the stronger side, especially at home. Northampton’s away defensive vulnerabilities also suggest Lincoln has an advantage.
• Value Bet: No value, as the statistical probability (55%) closely matches the bookmaker’s implied probability.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Over 2.5 Goals

• Odds: 2.04
• Implied Probability: 49%
• Statistical Justification: Lincoln’s home matches have a 58% chance of going over 2.5 goals, while Northampton’s away games have a 60% likelihood. This trend favours a high-scoring game.
• Value Bet: Yes, as the statistical probability (approximately 60%) exceeds the implied probability of 49%.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes

• Odds: 1.95
• Implied Probability: 51%
• Statistical Justification: With an 80% BTTS rate in Northampton’s away games and an 83% BTTS rate for Lincoln at home, both teams scoring appears highly probable.
• Value Bet: Yes, as the BTTS probability (about 80%) is well above the bookmaker’s implied probability.

BTTS 1st Half

• Odds: 5.00
• Implied Probability: 20%
• Statistical Justification: Both teams have scored in the first half of 20% of Northampton’s away games and 33% of Lincoln’s home matches, suggesting a lower likelihood of early goals.
• No Bet: The implied probability closely aligns with the statistical likelihood, offering limited value.

BTTS 2nd Half

• Odds: 3.50
• Implied Probability: 29%
• Statistical Justification: Northampton’s away games have seen both teams score in the second half 60% of the time, compared to Lincoln’s 50% at home.
• Value Bet: Yes, as the statistical probability (about 55%) slightly exceeds the implied probability of 29%, making this a potential value bet.

Over/Under 1st Half – Over 0.5 Goals

• Odds: 1.40
• Implied Probability: 71%
• Statistical Justification: The chance of a goal in the first half aligns at about 64% based on team trends, slightly lower than the implied probability.
• No Bet: Given that the implied probability (71%) is slightly higher than the data suggests, this market holds limited value.

Result 1st Half – Draw

• Odds: 2.20
• Implied Probability: 45%
• Statistical Justification: Lincoln has drawn 67% of first halves at home, while Northampton has drawn 40% of first halves away, making a first-half draw probable.
• Value Bet: No, as the implied and actual probabilities align closely.

Double Chance – Lincoln City/Draw

• Odds: 1.18
• Implied Probability: 84.7%
• Statistical Justification: Lincoln’s solid home performance suggests they are unlikely to lose outright, especially with Northampton’s lower away win rate.
• No Bet: The short odds provide limited value for this market.

Result 2nd Half – Lincoln City to Win

• Odds: 2.05
• Implied Probability: 49%
• Statistical Justification: Lincoln has a strong second-half performance at home, winning 50% of second halves, while Northampton’s away form in the second half is weaker.
• Value Bet: Yes, as Lincoln’s strong second-half trend makes this a probable outcome.

Over/Under 2nd Half – Over 1.5 Goals

• Odds: 2.09
• Implied Probability: 48%
• Statistical Justification: With a high-scoring second half in many of their games, both Lincoln and Northampton see increased action in the later stages.
• Value Bet: Yes, as the data supports a high-probability second half, making this market favourable at these odds.

Team to Score First – Lincoln City

• Odds: 1.50
• Implied Probability: 67%
• Statistical Justification: Lincoln has scored first in 50% of home games, while Northampton concedes first in most away games.
• Value Bet: No, as the odds align with the statistical likelihood.

Clean Sheet – Lincoln City

• Odds: 2.90
• Implied Probability: 34%
• Statistical Justification: With Northampton’s high BTTS rate, a clean sheet for Lincoln is unlikely.
• No Bet: The statistical trends suggest Northampton will likely score, offering no value in this market.

Win to Nil – Lincoln City

• Odds: 2.90
• Implied Probability: 34%
• Statistical Justification: Given Northampton’s high BTTS rate, Lincoln winning without conceding is a lower probability.
• No Bet: This market lacks value due to Northampton’s likelihood of scoring.

Corners 1×2 – Lincoln City to Win Corners

• Odds: 1.48
• Implied Probability: 67%
• Statistical Justification: Lincoln averages 5.25 corners at home while Northampton averages 3.2 away.
• No Bet: The implied probability is consistent with the statistical data, offering limited value.

Corners Over/Under 10.5 – Over

• Odds: 2.40
• Implied Probability: 42%
• Statistical Justification: Combined average corners per match suggest a high corner count, making over 10.5 probable.
• Value Bet: Yes, with strong statistical backing, this market provides value.

Goal and Yellow Card Timings

Final Score & Best Value Bet

STATTO PREDICTION
Lincoln City2-1Northampton Town

BEST VALUE BET
Both Teams To Score – Yes (1.95)

HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Over 2.5 Goals (2.04)

If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:

1. Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
2. Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
3. Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
4. Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.

IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.

Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.