Liverpool Vs Aston Villa: Predictions, Extensive Match Stats, And Value Bets

Match Introduction

Liverpool take on Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday, November 9, 2024, at Anfield, with kick-off scheduled for 8:00 pm.

Liverpool come into this match with a strong home record, winning four out of their five home games this season while averaging 1.8 goals per game and conceding only 0.6 goals per game at Anfield.

Aston Villa, meanwhile, have shown solid form on the road, winning three out of their five away games, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game and conceding 1.8.

Liverpool Home Data

Liverpool have played 5 home games this season.

Goals: Liverpool have scored an average of 1.8 goals per game at home and conceded 0.6 goals per game, showing a reliable attack and a strong defensive foundation at Anfield.
xG (Expected Goals): Liverpool’s xG at home stands at 1.75, aligning closely with their actual goal-scoring average of 1.8. This indicates that Liverpool are converting opportunities at expected rates, maintaining solid scoring efficiency.
xGA (Expected Goals Against): Liverpool’s xGA at home is 1.31, while their actual goals conceded average is only 0.6. This shows that Liverpool are overperforming defensively, conceding fewer goals than the quality of opponent chances might suggest.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 40% of Liverpool’s home matches, indicating that Liverpool’s defense often prevents opponents from scoring.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 60% of Liverpool’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals, highlighting moderate scoring potential in their home matches.
First Half Goals: Liverpool have scored in the first half in 80% of home matches, averaging 1 goal in the first 45 minutes, while keeping a first-half clean sheet rate of 80%. This suggests strong first-half performances both offensively and defensively.

Key Insights:

Consistent Home Performance: Liverpool’s solid form at Anfield, with a scoring average of 1.8 goals and only 0.6 conceded per game, indicates strong home-field dominance.
Defensive Overperformance: With an xGA of 1.31 but only 0.6 goals conceded on average, Liverpool’s defense is outperforming expected metrics, making them likely to continue limiting opponent scoring chances at home.
First-Half Strength: Liverpool excels in the first half, achieving an 80% first-half clean sheet rate and scoring frequently within the first 45 minutes, supporting bets on Liverpool to lead or keep a clean sheet by half-time.
Goal Timing: The majority of Liverpool’s goals at home occur between the 21st and 70th minutes, indicating that mid-game periods see the most action and potential scoring.
Corner Activity: Liverpool’s home games average 11.2 total corners, with Liverpool earning an average of 5.8 themselves. This supports betting markets on high corner counts.
Low BTTS Probability: With only 40% of home matches involving both teams scoring, Liverpool’s defensive stability suggests value in BTTS (No) markets, particularly at Anfield.
Set-Piece Involvement: Liverpool averages 11.57 free kicks per match, slightly lower at home (10.5), indicating frequent set-piece play that may impact the flow and control of matches.

Aston Villa Away Team Data

Aston Villa have played 5 away games this season.

Goals: Aston Villa averages 2.0 goals scored per game and 1.8 goals conceded in away matches. This highlights their offensive efficiency on the road but also points to defensive vulnerabilities.
xG (Expected Goals): Aston Villa’s xG for away games is 1.20, lower than their actual scoring rate of 2.0 goals per game. This suggests they are performing above expectations in terms of finishing.
xGA (Expected Goals Against): Aston Villa’s xGA on the road is 1.38, which aligns closely with their actual conceding average of 1.8 goals. This indicates that their defensive performance is close to expected metrics, though they tend to concede slightly more than anticipated.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 100% of Aston Villa’s away matches, confirming their tendency for high-action games with both sides finding the net.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: All of Aston Villa’s away games have exceeded 2.5 goals, reinforcing the pattern of high-scoring matches.
First Half Goals: Aston Villa has a strong first-half scoring record in away matches, averaging 1.2 goals. They have failed to score in only 0% of first halves away from home, showing a strong offensive start.

Key Insights:

High-Scoring Away Matches:
- Aston Villa’s away games consistently surpass 2.5 total goals, with 100% going over this mark and 60% reaching over 3.5 goals. This indicates value in betting on high total goals in their away matches.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS):
- With a 100% BTTS rate in away games, Aston Villa is highly likely to see both sides scoring. This trend aligns with their defensive challenges and offensive capabilities, making BTTS markets favourable.
Efficient Finishing:
- Aston Villa’s 21% shot conversion rate on the road suggests they capitalize well on their chances, supporting bets on goals even with lower shot volumes.
Mid-Game Scoring:
- Significant scoring occurs in the 31′-40′ and 61′-80′ intervals, suggesting value in betting on goals in these mid-game segments.
Late Defensive Weakness:
- Aston Villa concedes heavily between 71′-80′ (33% of concessions), suggesting potential value in betting on goals during this late-game period.
Corner and Set-Piece Involvement:
- Away games average 10.0 total corners, with 80% exceeding 6.5 corners. However, Aston Villa tends to be outpaced by opponents in corner counts, indicating value in total corner markets rather than team-specific corner bets.
Card Accumulation in Second Half:
- Aston Villa’s matches average 6.6 total cards, with 4.0 occurring in the second half. This trend supports bets on higher card counts in the latter stages of away games.
Strong First Half Performance:
- Aston Villa often leads or scores in the first half, with 60% first-half wins in away games. They also have a high rate of scoring over 0.5 goals in the first half, making them a solid choice for first-half scoring markets.
Frequent Away Scorelines:
- Common full-time away scorelines include 1-2 and 4-1, with 3-4 total goals being the most frequent. Betting on these exact scorelines or goal ranges could offer value.

Match Betting Section

Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming Premier League match between Liverpool and Aston Villa at Anfield.

Remember, with value betting, you are placing bets that have a greater chance of winning than the implied odds, giving you an edge over the bookmakers. It’s not necessarily the result you would expect.

Full-Time Result – Liverpool to Win

Odds: 1.49
Implied Probability: 67.11%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool’s strong home form, with an 80% win rate at Anfield this season, contrasts significantly with Aston Villa’s mixed away results. This makes Liverpool a firm favourite at home.
Value Bet: The implied probability is lower than Liverpool’s actual win rate, confirming this as a value bet.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Over 2.5

Odds: 1.47
Implied Probability: 68.03%
Statistical Justification: Both Liverpool’s home and Aston Villa’s away matches show a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals, with a combined probability reaching 80%.
Value Bet: The implied probability of 68.03% is below the actual probability, making Over 2.5 goals a solid value bet.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes

Odds: 1.68
Implied Probability: 59.52%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool has a 70% BTTS rate at home, while Aston Villa’s away rate stands at 100%, indicating a strong likelihood of both teams scoring in this encounter.
Value Bet: With the actual probability significantly higher than the implied probability, this is a recommended value bet.

BTTS 1st Half

Odds: 3.75
Implied Probability: 26.67%
Statistical Justification: Low first-half scoring rates for both Liverpool (10%) and Aston Villa (40%) reduce the chances of both teams scoring early.
No Bet: The low statistical backing for this outcome makes it a less attractive option.

BTTS 2nd Half

Odds: 2.77
Implied Probability: 36.10%
Statistical Justification: The probability of both teams scoring in the second half aligns closely with the implied probability.
No Bet: The statistical likelihood does not provide an advantage, so this market holds little value.

Over/Under 1st Half – Over 0.5 Goals

Odds: 1.25
Implied Probability: 80%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool and Aston Villa show some potential for first-half goals, but the odds fairly reflect this likelihood.
No Bet: Short odds and limited goal-scoring trends in the first half reduce the appeal of this market.

Result 1st Half – Liverpool to Win

Odds: 1.91
Implied Probability: 52.36%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool’s first-half win rate, though solid, does not overwhelmingly support a confident bet on this outcome, given Aston Villa’s competitiveness early in matches.
No Bet: The stats suggest Liverpool is stronger in the second half, making this market less attractive.

Double Chance – Aston Villa or Draw (X2)

Odds: 2.91
Implied Probability: 34.36%
Statistical Justification: Given Liverpool’s strength at home, the probability of an Aston Villa win or draw appears lower than the bookmaker’s implied odds.
No Bet: Liverpool’s dominant home performance suggests this is a high-risk market, offering limited value.

Result 2nd Half – Liverpool to Win

Odds: 1.74
Implied Probability: 57.47%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool’s strong second-half performance (60%) slightly outperforms the implied probability, though not by a wide margin.
No Bet: A marginal edge makes this market less appealing as a high-value option.

Over/Under 2nd Half – Over 1.5 Goals

Odds: 1.68
Implied Probability: 59.52%
Statistical Justification: Both Liverpool and Aston Villa have shown a high likelihood of second-half goals, making this an attractive option.
Value Bet: The true probability supports a high likelihood of over 1.5 goals in the second half, confirming this as a value bet.

Team to Score First – Liverpool

Odds: 1.42
Implied Probability: 70.42%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool have scored first in 80% of their home games, aligning well with the statistical trend in favour of an early Liverpool goal.
Value Bet: This bet offers a slight statistical edge, as Liverpool’s first-goal rate exceeds the implied probability.

Clean Sheet – Liverpool

Odds: 2.60
Implied Probability: 38.46%
Statistical Justification: Aston Villa’s high BTTS rate this season lowers Liverpool’s chances of keeping a clean sheet.
No Bet: Aston Villa’s likelihood of scoring suggests this outcome holds little value.

Clean Sheet – Aston Villa

Odds: 8.00
Implied Probability: 12.50%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool’s scoring consistency makes an Aston Villa clean sheet improbable.
No Bet: Given Liverpool’s strength in attack, this market is highly unlikely and offers little value.

Win to Nil – Liverpool

Odds: 2.80
Implied Probability: 35.71%
Statistical Justification: Aston Villa’s BTTS trend and scoring ability suggest a risk in backing Liverpool to win to nil.
No Bet: Aston Villa’s likelihood of scoring makes this outcome a high-risk choice.

Corners Over/Under 10.5 – Over

Odds: 1.81
Implied Probability: 55.25%
Statistical Justification: Liverpool and Aston Villa’s high average corners per match support over 10.5 corners, making this a statistically strong market.
Value Bet: The implied probability is slightly below the combined average corner rate, making this a value option.

Final Score & Best Value Bet

STATTO PREDICTION
Liverpool3-1Aston Villa

BEST VALUE BET
Over 2.5 Goals (1.47)

HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Over 1.5 Goals S/H (1.68)

If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:

Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.

IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.

Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.