Match Introduction
Queens Park Rangers take on Sunderland in the EFL Championship on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at the MATRADE Loftus Road Stadium, with kick-off scheduled for 3:00 pm.
QPR have struggled at home this season, managing three draws and three losses without a win, conceding an average of 1.83 goals per game.
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Sunderland, meanwhile, has shown strong away form, winning four of their six away games, with an average of 1.83 goals scored per game.
Queens Park Rangers Home Data
QPR have played 6 home games this season.
- Goals: QPR have scored an average of 1.0 goals per game at home while conceding 1.83 goals per game. This reflects a defensive struggle at home, with limited scoring efficiency despite moderate shot volume.
- xG (Expected Goals): QPR’s xG at home stands at 1.73, suggesting they are creating quality chances but underperforming in converting these into goals. Their actual scoring is lower than xG predicts, indicating finishing inefficiencies.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): With an xGA of 1.19 at home, QPR are conceding more than expected, with 1.83 goals conceded per game. This defensive underperformance reflects vulnerabilities in their backline and goal prevention.
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 100% of QPR’s home matches, highlighting consistent defensive issues while also managing to find the net in each game at Loftus Road.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 50% of QPR’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals, which shows a balance between moderate-scoring and higher-scoring matches, though their defensive instability often contributes to elevated goal totals.
- First Half Goals: QPR’s home games tend to see early action, with 67% ending in a 1-1 half-time result. This trend shows a susceptibility to conceding in the first half, while also being capable of scoring before the break.
Key Insights:
- Defensive Weakness at Home: QPR concedes 1.83 goals per game at home and has not kept a single clean sheet. Their actual goals conceded are higher than expected, highlighting defensive inefficiencies that are consistently exploited by opponents.
- High Shot Volume with Low Conversion: Despite averaging 13.17 shots per game at home, QPR’s shot conversion rate is low at 8%, showing difficulty in finishing chances effectively. They manage 7.33 shots on target per game but convert infrequently, suggesting that backing high shot totals may be favourable over goal counts.
- Consistent BTTS in Home Matches: All of QPR’s home matches have seen both teams score, underscoring their defensive frailties while maintaining some scoring ability. This trend suggests value in the BTTS market for future QPR home games.
- Frequent Corners and Higher Second-Half Intensity: QPR’s home matches average 11.67 corners per game, with higher rates in the second half. QPR earns an average of 7.00 corners per game at home, showing an aggressive offensive setup that often leads to corner opportunities.
- Early and Late Vulnerabilities: QPR frequently concedes between the 21st-30th and 51st-60th minutes, indicating challenges in defensive organization during transitional phases of the match.
- Common 1-1 Half-time Scoreline: QPR’s home matches frequently end the first half at 1-1 (67%), with a strong tendency toward both scoring and conceding before half-time.
Sunderland Away Data
Sunderland have played 6 away games this season in the 2024/25 Championship.
- Goals: Sunderland score an average of 1.83 goals per game away from home and concede 1.17 goals per game. This indicates a consistent offensive output with some defensive vulnerability, particularly in the latter stages of matches.
- xG (Expected Goals): Sunderland’s xG for away games is 1.36, which closely aligns with their actual goals scored per game, suggesting that they convert their chances effectively but do not typically exceed expected scoring outcomes.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): With an xGA of 1.27 away, Sunderland’s defensive performance is on par with expected metrics. Their actual goals conceded slightly exceed xGA, which points to minor lapses in defense, especially late in games.
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score): 67% of Sunderland’s away games have seen both teams score, highlighting a pattern of open games where Sunderland is often engaged in goal exchanges.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 67% of Sunderland’s away games have gone over 2.5 goals, showing a tendency for higher-scoring matches on the road.
- First Half Goals: Only 50% of away matches feature a goal for Sunderland by half-time, with a common 0-1 lead or 0-0 scoreline at the break, reflecting their defensive strength and cautious starts early in games.
Key Insights:
- Second-Half Performance: Sunderland’s scoring significantly increases in the second half, where they average 1.33 goals, compared to just 0.5 goals in the first half. This points to potential value in betting on “Sunderland to Score in Second Half” or “Second Half Goals.”
- First-Half Defensive Stability: Sunderland has kept first-half clean sheets in 83% of away games, suggesting value in backing a “First Half Clean Sheet for Sunderland” market, given their defensive reliability early in matches.
- Late Defensive Vulnerability: Sunderland concedes frequently between the 81st-90th minute (33%), indicating a potential value in markets for “Goal After 75th Minute” or “Opponent to Score Late.”
- Consistent BTTS in Away Matches: The high BTTS rate (67%) in away games suggests Sunderland’s games are often open, and both teams frequently score, making BTTS a valuable market for their away fixtures.
- Corners: Sunderland’s away games feature an average of 9.33 total corners, with 100% of games exceeding 6.5 and 7.5 corners. This indicates value in moderate corner markets for their away matches.
- Moderate Card Totals: With an average of 4.17 cards per away game, Sunderland’s matches tend to stay under high thresholds, suggesting reliable value in backing markets around 2.5 to 4.5 total cards.
- Frequent Scorelines: Common away scorelines include 0-2, 1-3, and 3-2, reflecting Sunderland’s balanced ability to both score and concede on the road. Their frequent half-time scoreline of 0-1 also suggests value in betting on Sunderland to lead by one goal at the half.
Match Betting Section
Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming EFL Championship match between Queens Park Rangers and Sunderland at MATRADE Loftus Road.
Full-Time Result – Sunderland to Win
- Odds: 2.14
- Implied Probability: 46.73%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s impressive away form, with a 67% win rate, contrasts significantly with Queens Park Rangers’ struggles at home, where they have yet to secure a victory. Sunderland’s solid scoring rate and defensive strength support a potential away win.
- Value Bet: Sunderland’s implied probability of 46.73% is lower than their true probability of 67%, making this a strong value bet.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Over 2.5 Goals
- Odds: 2.20
- Implied Probability: 45.45%
- Statistical Justification: Queens Park Rangers’ home matches and Sunderland’s away games have averaged over 2.5 goals 59% of the time. Sunderland’s attacking efficiency combined with Queens Park Rangers’ vulnerability at home suggests a higher-scoring encounter.
- Value Bet: The true probability of 59% exceeds the implied probability, indicating value in betting on Over 2.5 Goals.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes
- Odds: 1.94
- Implied Probability: 51.55%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s away matches have seen BTTS in 67% of games, while Queens Park Rangers has struggled defensively. With Sunderland’s strong offense and Queens Park Rangers’ scoring potential at home, BTTS is likely.
- Value Bet: With a 67% probability, BTTS Yes provides value against the bookmaker’s implied probability of 51.55%.
BTTS 1st Half
- Odds: 5.34
- Implied Probability: 18.73%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s away games have rarely seen both teams scoring in the first half. Only 8% of games have featured this outcome, indicating a low likelihood.
- No Bet: The low probability of both teams scoring in the first half doesn’t offer value here.
BTTS 2nd Half
- Odds: 3.50
- Implied Probability: 28.57%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland has seen both teams score in the second half in only 34% of games, with a lower likelihood of late goals from Queens Park Rangers.
- No Bet: The stats do not strongly support BTTS in the second half, making this a lower-value option.
Over/Under 1st Half – Over 0.5 Goals
- Odds: 1.44
- Implied Probability: 69.44%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s away games have generally been more active in the second half, with only moderate scoring in the first half. This market aligns closely with first-half scoring trends for both teams.
- No Bet: Although there’s a chance of a first-half goal, the odds reflect a fairly accurate probability, offering limited value.
Result 1st Half – Draw
- Odds: 2.05
- Implied Probability: 48.78%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams have shown a tendency to keep first halves tight, with Queens Park Rangers drawing 67% of their first halves at home and Sunderland showing similar results in away games.
- Value Bet: With Queens Park Rangers and Sunderland showing strong first-half defenses, a draw at half-time provides potential value here.
Double Chance – Sunderland/Draw (X2)
- Odds: 1.32
- Implied Probability: 75.76%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s away form makes them favourites, with Queens Park Rangers’ poor home record reducing the chance of an upset.
- Value Bet: With a combined 92% probability for Sunderland or Draw, this market offers value with strong statistical backing.
Result 2nd Half – Sunderland to Win
- Odds: 2.50
- Implied Probability: 40%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s away second-half performances are strong, with a win rate of 67%. Their consistent goal-scoring and Queens Park Rangers’ defensive lapses after half-time add weight to this market.
- Value Bet: Sunderland’s second-half win probability is significantly higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability, making this a value bet.
Over/Under 2nd Half – Over 1.5 Goals
- Odds: 2.15
- Implied Probability: 46.51%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s second-half scoring trend suggests potential for two or more goals, with their away games frequently seeing second-half action.
- Value Bet: The high probability of second-half goals offers value here.
Team to Score First – Sunderland
- Odds: 1.67
- Implied Probability: 59.88%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland have scored first in 83% of their away games, with Queens Park Rangers conceding frequently in the first half at home.
- Value Bet: With a strong likelihood of Sunderland scoring first, this market provides value.
Clean Sheet – Sunderland
- Odds: 2.55
- Implied Probability: 39.22%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s 33% clean sheet rate in away games and Queens Park Rangers’ struggles to score suggest a clean sheet possibility for Sunderland.
- No Bet: While Sunderland’s clean sheet probability offers potential, the odds don’t align as strongly with their statistical likelihood.
Clean Sheet – Queens Park Rangers
- Odds: 3.65
- Implied Probability: 27.40%
- Statistical Justification: Queens Park Rangers has yet to keep a clean sheet at home, while Sunderland’s strong scoring record makes this unlikely.
- No Bet: The implied probability of a Queens Park Rangers clean sheet is too low to recommend a bet.
Win to Nil – Sunderland
- Odds: 3.45
- Implied Probability: 28.99%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s strong scoring and defensive record makes a win without conceding possible, especially against Queens Park Rangers’ limited scoring potential.
- Value Bet: Sunderland’s consistent defense and Queens Park Rangers’ scoring issues create value here.
Corners 1×2 – Sunderland to Win Corners
- Odds: 1.89
- Implied Probability: 52.91%
- Statistical Justification: Sunderland’s away matches have averaged more corners than Queens Park Rangers’ home games, supporting Sunderland to lead in corners.
- Value Bet: With Sunderland’s strong corner metrics, this market offers reasonable value.
Corners Over/Under 10.5 – Over
- Odds: 1.91
- Implied Probability: 52.36%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams have high corner averages, with Sunderland’s away games and Queens Park Rangers’ home games frequently exceeding 10.5 total corners.
- Value Bet: The probability of high corner counts offers value for Over 10.5 corners.
Final Score & Best Value Bet
STATTO PREDICTION
QPR1-3Sunderland
BEST VALUE BET
Sunderland Away Win (2.10)
HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Over 1.5 SH Goals (2.25)
If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:
- Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
- Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
- Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
- Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.
IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.
Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.
