Match Introduction
Sheffield Wednesday take on Norwich City in the EFL Championship on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at Hillsborough, with kick-off scheduled for 7:45 pm.
Wednesday come into this match with a mixed home record, securing two wins, two draws, and three losses, while averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded per game at Hillsborough.
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Norwich City, meanwhile, have shown inconsistency on the road with two wins, two draws, and three losses, averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game away from home.
Sheffield Wednesday Home Data
Sheffield Wednesday have played 7 home games this season, with varied performance patterns highlighting key trends in goals, defensive stability, and set-piece actions at Hillsborough.
- Goals: Sheffield Wednesday have scored an average of 1.43 goals per game at home while conceding 1.86 goals per game. This negative goal difference emphasizes defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in the second half, where a significant portion of goals are conceded.
- xG (Expected Goals): Sheffield Wednesday’s xG at home is 1.46, indicating that they are converting chances close to the expected rate. However, the average of 1.43 goals scored shows that they are just meeting their potential without exceeding it significantly.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their xGA at home is 1.18, but actual goals conceded are higher at 1.86 per game. This discrepancy points to defensive inefficiencies, as they are conceding more than the quality of chances would suggest, especially later in matches.
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 43% of Sheffield Wednesday’s home matches, reflecting their tendency to both score and concede in games at Hillsborough, albeit inconsistently.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 43% of Sheffield Wednesday’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals, showing a moderate rate of high-scoring matches. Despite a high average goal per game (3.29), fewer than half of their home matches exceed this threshold, suggesting variability in scoring patterns.
- First Half Goals: Sheffield Wednesday averages 0.57 goals scored and 0.43 goals conceded in the first half at home. With 57% of first halves at Hillsborough ending in a clean sheet for Sheffield Wednesday, their games often start slower with fewer early goals.
Key Insights:
- Second-Half Dominance: Sheffield Wednesday’s matches tend to see more action in the second half, with 67% of their goals scored and 54% of goals conceded after the break. Betting on second-half goals or “Both Teams to Score” in the second half may offer value.
- Defensive Weakness: Sheffield Wednesday concedes more than expected, with an xGA of 1.18 but an actual rate of 1.86 goals conceded per game. This trend suggests potential value in betting on their opponents to score or “Over 1.5 Goals” against Sheffield Wednesday.
- Corners Market: Sheffield Wednesday’s home games average 11.71 corners, with a strong likelihood of exceeding 6.5 and 8.5 corners. They often generate corners early, hitting over 0.5 corners in the first 10 minutes in 100% of home matches.
- Low Early Scoring: With only 14% of home games featuring a goal in the first 10 minutes and 86% ending in a draw at this stage, Sheffield Wednesday starts conservatively. Betting on “No Goals in First 10 Minutes” or “Draw at 10 Minutes” aligns with this pattern.
- Shot Efficiency: Despite taking an average of 12 shots per game at home (with a conversion rate of 12%), Sheffield Wednesday’s scoring output remains modest. With an average of 3.4 shots on target needed per goal, their low efficiency could signal value in betting on higher shot thresholds rather than total goals.
Norwich City Away Data
Norwich have played 7 away games this season, demonstrating average performance with both strengths and weaknesses, particularly in defensive stability and set-piece activity.
- Goals: Norwich City have scored an average of 1.14 goals per game away from home while conceding 1.43 goals per game. This shows a lower offensive output on the road and reflects defensive vulnerabilities, especially in later stages of the match.
- xG (Expected Goals): Norwich City’s xG in away games is 1.04, which aligns closely with their actual goal-scoring rate of 1.14 goals per game, indicating they are performing in line with expected chances without significantly overperforming.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their xGA in away games is 1.29, which is close to their actual goals conceded (1.43). This reflects a defensive consistency that matches the quality of chances they allow, though they remain prone to conceding late goals.
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 57% of Norwich City’s away matches, which highlights a moderate tendency for BTTS outcomes on the road.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 43% of Norwich’s away games have gone over 2.5 goals, showing that lower goal totals are common in their away matches.
- First Half Goals: Norwich City has a low scoring average in the first half, with only 0.43 goals scored per game in away matches, while conceding 0.71 goals. This pattern suggests a cautious approach to the first half when playing away.
Key Insights:
- Moderate Away Scoring and Defensive Vulnerabilities: Norwich’s away games show reduced scoring activity, with an average of 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game. Their xG and xGA align closely with these averages, suggesting limited overperformance in attack or defense. Betting on lower scoring markets, such as “Under 2.5 Goals,” may offer value in away fixtures.
- Low Early Scoring in Away Games: Only 28% of Norwich’s away games see over 0.5 goals scored in the first 10 minutes, and they remain more likely to be drawing at this point (71% draw rate). Betting on “Draw at 10 Minutes” or “Under 0.5 Goals in the First 10 Minutes” aligns well with their cautious starts on the road.
- Corners Market Consistency: Norwich’s away games average 10.29 total corners, with high probabilities for reaching over 6.5 and 8.5 corners (100% and 71%, respectively). Betting on corner thresholds, particularly above 6.5 or 8.5 total corners, could be beneficial in their away games.
- Second Half Stability and Card Activity: Norwich has a 56% clean sheet rate in the second half of away games and sees higher card activity in this period, with 86% of games seeing over 0.5 cards in the second half. Betting on Norwich to keep a second-half clean sheet or on card-related markets in the second half may provide value.
- Common Scorelines in Away Matches: The most frequent full-time scorelines for Norwich City away are 0-1, 1-1, and 2-3. These competitive and low-scoring results suggest potential value in markets like “Both Teams to Score” or on scorelines close to one or two goals.
Match Betting Section
Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming EFL Championship match between Sheffield Wednesday and Norwich City at Hillsborough.
Remember, with value betting, you’re placing bets with a greater chance of winning than the implied odds, giving you an edge over the bookmakers. It’s not necessarily the result you would expect but is based on statistical value.
Full-Time Result – Draw
- Odds: 3.46
- Implied Probability: 28.90%
- Statistical Justification: Sheffield Wednesday and Norwich City have both displayed similar recent performances, with Sheffield showing a 29% home win rate and Norwich showing a 29% draw rate in away games. The draw is reasonably probable given the data.
- No Bet: The implied probability aligns with the match data, showing no clear edge in betting on the full-time draw.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Under 2.5
- Odds: 1.87
- Implied Probability: 53.48%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams show lower scoring trends in their respective matches, with 57% of Sheffield’s home games and 57% of Norwich’s away games ending under 2.5 goals.
- Value Bet: The statistical likelihood of under 2.5 goals exceeds the implied probability, making this a potential value bet.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No
- Odds: 2.06
- Implied Probability: 48.54%
- Statistical Justification: The BTTS likelihood is only around 50% based on Sheffield’s low-scoring trend at home (43% BTTS) and Norwich’s lower away scoring rate.
- Value Bet: The statistical probability of no BTTS is slightly higher than the implied probability, suggesting value in this market.
BTTS 1st Half
- Odds: 4.33
- Implied Probability: 23.09%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams show a low probability of BTTS in the first half, with Sheffield’s home games seeing just 14% BTTS in the first half.
- No Bet: The low probability reflects the odds well, so no significant value in this market.
BTTS 2nd Half
- Odds: 3.40
- Implied Probability: 29.41%
- Statistical Justification: Both Sheffield and Norwich have relatively low BTTS rates in the second half, which aligns with a conservative scoring pattern for both teams.
- No Bet: With the implied probability matching team trends, this market holds no clear betting edge.
Over/Under 1st Half – Over 0.5 Goals
- Odds: 1.42
- Implied Probability: 70.42%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams have recorded first-half goals in roughly 50% of recent games, with Norwich having a slight edge on away goals early in matches.
- No Bet: This market has been priced fairly by bookmakers, with no notable value to pursue.
Result 1st Half – Draw
- Odds: 2.10
- Implied Probability: 47.62%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams tend toward balanced or scoreless first halves, with draws occurring frequently in the opening 45 minutes.
- No Bet: The odds reflect the draw’s likelihood, showing no distinct value.
Double Chance – Draw/Norwich City
- Odds: 1.75
- Implied Probability: 57.14%
- Statistical Justification: Given Norwich’s moderate away performance and Sheffield’s average home form, the probability of either a draw or a Norwich win aligns with statistical predictions.
- Value Bet: The implied probability sits slightly below recent performance rates, suggesting a marginal value bet here.
Result 2nd Half – Norwich City to Win
- Odds: 3.30
- Implied Probability: 30.30%
- Statistical Justification: Norwich City tends to perform better in the second half of away games, showing improvement as matches progress, while Sheffield Wednesday’s second-half form has been inconsistent.
- Value Bet: Norwich City’s stronger second-half record makes this a viable bet, with a slight edge on the implied probability.
Over/Under 2nd Half – Over 1.5 Goals
- Odds: 2.10
- Implied Probability: 47.62%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams show a moderate trend toward more active second halves, with a 50% probability of exceeding 1.5 goals in the second half.
- No Bet: The probability aligns closely with the implied odds, offering no value.
Team to Score First – Norwich City
- Odds: 2.38
- Implied Probability: 42.02%
- Statistical Justification: Norwich City has a high probability of scoring first in away games, while Sheffield has a lower likelihood of opening the scoring at home.
- Value Bet: With Norwich more likely to break the deadlock, this bet holds moderate value at these odds.
Clean Sheet – Sheffield Wednesday
- Odds: 2.80
- Implied Probability: 35.71%
- Statistical Justification: Sheffield’s moderate clean sheet rate, coupled with Norwich’s reduced scoring potential in away games, gives this bet an edge.
- Value Bet: This market offers value, as Sheffield’s defensive strength supports a clean sheet probability close to the odds.
Corners Over/Under 10.5 – Over
- Odds: 1.96
- Implied Probability: 51.02%
- Statistical Justification: Both teams have a tendency for high corner counts, with an average over 10 corners in recent games.
- Value Bet: Given the corner averages, betting on over 10.5 corners presents value.
Final Score & Best Value Bet
STATTO PREDICTION
Sheff Wed0-1Norwich City
BEST VALUE BET
Under 2.5 Goals (1.87)
HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Team Score First – Norwich (2.38)
If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:
- Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
- Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
- Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
- Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.
IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.
Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.
