St Mirren vs St Johnstone: Match Stats and Value Bets

Match Introduction

Saint Mirren take on St. Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership on Wednesday, October 30, 2024, at the SMISA Stadium, with kick-off scheduled for 7:45 pm.

Saint Mirren approach this match with a mixed home record, winning two, drawing one, and losing two of their five home games while scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game.

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St. Johnstone, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, with two wins, one draw, and three losses across six away games, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game.

St. Mirren Home Data

St. Mirren have played 5 home games this season.

• Goals: St. Mirren have scored an average of 1.4 goals per game at home while conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game. This reflects a balanced offensive and defensive performance at their home stadium, though it indicates susceptibility to conceding as many goals as they score.
• xG (Expected Goals): St. Mirren’s xG at home is 1.06, slightly lower than their actual scoring average, suggesting they are scoring above expected performance based on the quality of chances created.
• xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their xGA at home is 1.39, indicating that while they concede 1.4 goals per game, this aligns with the level of defensive exposure they face. The team’s home defense aligns closely with expected defensive performance.
• BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 40% of St. Mirren’s home games, which supports a trend of moderate defensive resilience at home, limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities.
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 80% of St. Mirren’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting their tendency to be involved in higher-scoring matches when playing at home.
• First Half Goals: 60% of their home matches have featured at least one goal in the first half, indicating that St. Mirren frequently begin matches with some offensive pressure and scoring potential.

Key Insights:

• Early Scoring and Corners: St. Mirren often start matches strongly at home, with 60% of games featuring goals in the first 10 minutes and 80% reaching at least 0.5 corners in that interval. This trend suggests potential value in early goal and corner markets.
• Goal-Heavy Matches: With 80% of home games surpassing 2.5 goals, St. Mirren show consistent potential for higher total goals in their fixtures, especially at home.
• BTTS Value in Away Games: While BTTS is moderate at home (40%), the rate is higher in away games. This suggests that, while they may restrict opponents more effectively at home, the BTTS market is still a key consideration in overall match betting setups.
• Strong First-Half Performance: St. Mirren show better offensive and defensive control in the first half of home games, often leading or scoring early. Their goal-scoring frequency is higher in the first half (60%), presenting potential value in first-half scoring markets.
• High Cards and Fouls: With an average of 5.4 cards per game, particularly higher in away matches, St. Mirren’s games consistently involve higher card totals, indicating potential value in card markets, particularly for games against similarly disciplined teams.
• Consistent Set Pieces: St. Mirren’s average corners hover around 10 per match, with most games reaching at least 6.5 or 8.5 total corners. This positions corner markets as a high-potential betting opportunity in their matches.

St. Johnstone Away Data

St. Johnstone have played 6 away games this season.

• Goals: St. Johnstone have scored an average of 1.33 goals per game away and conceded 1.67 goals per game. This aligns with their overall form, where they struggle defensively on the road while managing a moderate scoring rate.
• xG (Expected Goals): St. Johnstone’s xG away from home is 1.12, suggesting they perform close to expected levels, scoring in line with the quality of chances created.
• xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their xGA away is 1.42, lower than the actual goals conceded rate of 1.67. This indicates underperformance in defense, as they concede more than expected.
• BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 33% of St. Johnstone’s away games, showing a limited frequency of BTTS outcomes due to their tendency to concede more frequently than they score in away fixtures.
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 50% of St. Johnstone’s away games have gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting a moderate goal count. However, they frequently lose by two-goal margins, as evidenced by common scorelines like 2-0.
• First Half Goals: St. Johnstone’s away games feature limited first-half goals, with only 17% seeing at least one goal in the first 10 minutes. This trend supports lower early scoring in their away fixtures.

Key Insights:

• Late Scoring Trend: St. Johnstone frequently score in the final 10 minutes, with 38% of goals occurring between the 81st and 90th minutes, suggesting value in markets like “Goal After 75th Minute” or “St. Johnstone to Score Late.”
• Underperforming Defense: Despite an xGA of 1.42, they concede an average of 1.67 goals per game away, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that may hold value in opposition goal markets, particularly in the second half.
• Frequent Away Losses: Common away scorelines include 2-0 losses, with 50% of games ending in this result. This suggests value in correct score markets, particularly for a clean-sheet loss.
• Corner Market Reliability: St. Johnstone’s away games often exceed 6.5 corners, with 67% of matches reaching this level. This creates value in betting on moderate total corner counts in away matches.
• Disciplinary Trends: Away games see an average of 6.17 total cards, with second-half bookings dominating. This supports betting on high total cards and second-half card markets in St. Johnstone’s away matches.
• Low BTTS Rate: St. Johnstone’s away games have a 33% BTTS rate, suggesting value in backing “No” on BTTS when facing teams with strong defenses, as they often fail to score.
• Low First-Half Scoring: With low first-half scoring in away games, there is value in betting on Under 1.5 First Half Goals or specific markets like “0-0 at Half-Time” given their tendency to struggle offensively early in games.
• Shot Efficiency: Despite taking fewer shots away (8.67), they display moderate efficiency with a 15% conversion rate, needing 6.5 shots per goal. This trend supports value in low shot volume but reasonable scoring efficiency for away matches.
• Consistent Goal Kick Activity: St. Johnstone games consistently surpass 8.5 goal kicks, indicating value in total goal kick markets for their away games.

Match Betting Section

Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming Premiership match between St. Mirren and St. Johnstone at The SMISA Stadium.

Remember, with value betting, you are placing bets that have a greater chance of winning than the implied odds, giving you an edge over the bookmakers. It’s not necessary the result you would expect.

Full-Time Result – St. Mirren to Win

• Odds: 1.96
• Implied Probability: 51.0%
• Statistical Justification: St. Mirren’s strong home form contrasts with St. Johnstone’s inconsistency on the road. St. Mirren’s solid defensive record at home and St. Johnstone’s higher rate of away losses align with this bet.
• Value Bet: The close match between the implied and statistical probabilities suggests a limited edge here; no clear value.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Over 2.5

• Odds: 2.05
• Implied Probability: 48.8%
• Statistical Justification: St. Mirren’s and St. Johnstone’s recent games have shown a high rate of over 2.5 goals, with a combined statistical probability of 65%.
• Value Bet: Yes – The implied probability is significantly lower than the actual likelihood, making this a strong value bet.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No

• Odds: 2.10
• Implied Probability: 47.6%
• Statistical Justification: BTTS has been less frequent in St. Johnstone’s away games, and St. Mirren’s home defense has been relatively strong, contributing to a lower statistical BTTS probability.
• Value Bet: Yes – The statistical probability exceeds the bookmaker’s implied probability, making this a value bet.

BTTS 1st Half – No

• Odds: 1.18
• Implied Probability: 84.7%
• Statistical Justification: Both teams have low scoring rates in the first half, especially in away games for St. Johnstone.
• No Bet: The high implied probability accurately reflects the limited likelihood of first-half goals.

BTTS 2nd Half – No

• Odds: 1.30
• Implied Probability: 76.9%
• Statistical Justification: Scoring patterns show low activity in the second half for both teams, particularly in terms of both teams finding the net.
• No Bet: The implied probability aligns well with actual trends, providing no added value here.

Over/Under 1st Half – Under 1.5 Goals

• Odds: 1.40
• Implied Probability: 71.4%
• Statistical Justification: Both teams exhibit low first-half scoring trends, especially St. Mirren, who tend to start slowly at home.
• No Bet: The odds fairly reflect the likely outcome, so this is not a value market.

Result 1st Half – Draw

• Odds: 2.25
• Implied Probability: 44.4%
• Statistical Justification: Both teams’ tendency toward lower first-half action, with scoring often concentrated in the second half, supports this result.
• No Bet: The odds reflect a fair probability, so there is no significant value here.

Double Chance – St. Mirren/Draw

• Odds: 1.21
• Implied Probability: 82.6%
• Statistical Justification: St. Mirren’s strong home form supports this market, though the odds are short.
• No Bet: While this is statistically sound, the short odds offer minimal value for bettors.

Result 2nd Half – Draw

• Odds: 2.65
• Implied Probability: 37.7%
• Statistical Justification: St. Johnstone often shows improvement in the second half, evening out games that may appear unbalanced initially.
• No Bet: No significant edge is found in this market based on current odds.

Over/Under 2nd Half – Over 1.5 Goals

• Odds: 2.04
• Implied Probability: 49.0%
• Statistical Justification: Both teams have seen goal surges in the latter stages, with high-scoring rates in the second half.
• Value Bet: Yes – The implied probability is lower than the actual likelihood, making this a strong bet.

Team to Score First – St. Mirren

• Odds: 1.57
• Implied Probability: 63.7%
• Statistical Justification: St. Mirren scores first in 60% of their home games, and St. Johnstone concedes first frequently.
• No Bet: The implied probability closely matches the statistics, offering minimal value.

Clean Sheet – St. Mirren

• Odds: 2.40
• Implied Probability: 41.7%
• Statistical Justification: With St. Johnstone’s inconsistent scoring away, St. Mirren has a reasonable chance to keep a clean sheet.
• Value Bet: Yes – This offers good value with the probability exceeding the bookmaker’s implied odds.

Corners 1×2 – St. Mirren to Win Corners

• Odds: 1.51
• Implied Probability: 66.2%
• Statistical Justification: St. Mirren’s tendency to dominate corners at home supports this outcome, but the short odds limit value.
• No Bet: Low odds reduce the value, despite statistical backing.

Corners Over/Under 10.5 – Over

• Odds: 1.85
• Implied Probability: 54.1%
• Statistical Justification: Both teams’ matches frequently exceed 10.5 corners, indicating a high total corner count.
• Value Bet: Yes – This market offers value as the probability of high corner counts exceeds bookmaker odds.

Goal and Yellow Card Timing

Final Score & Best Value Bet

STATTO PREDICTION
St. Mirren2-1St. Johnstone

BEST VALUE BET
Over 2.5 Goals (2.05)

HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Over 10.5 Corners (1.85)

If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:

1. Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
2. Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
3. Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
4. Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.

IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.

Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.