West Bromwich Albion Vs Burnley: Predictions, Extensive Match Stats, And Value Bets

Match Introduction

West Bromwich Albion take on Burnley in the EFL Championship on Thursday, November 7, 2024, at The Hawthorns, with kick-off scheduled for 8:00 pm.

West Brom come into this match with a mixed home record, having recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss, scoring an average of 0.33 goals per game at home.

Burnley, meanwhile, has shown solid form on the road with three wins, two draws, and two losses, conceding an average of 0.57 goals per away game.

West Brom Home Data

West Bromwich Albion have played 6 home games this season at The Hawthorns. The team’s performances indicate a defensive-oriented approach with low goal-scoring but strong defensive resilience, reflected in various metrics across their matches.

Goals: West Bromwich has scored an average of 0.33 goals per game at home and conceded only 0.17 goals per game. This low scoring rate highlights their defensive structure and lack of offensive output, leading to controlled, low-scoring games at home.
xG (Expected Goals): West Brom’s xG at home is 1.40, which slightly exceeds their actual scoring average, suggesting they create some chances but struggle with finishing. This indicates inefficiency in converting opportunities into goals.
xGA (Expected Goals Against): The xGA at home is 1.00, aligning closely with their actual goals conceded, demonstrating consistent defensive performance and efficient limitation of opponent chances.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): No home games have featured BTTS, reinforcing West Brom’s strong defensive capability and their tendency toward low-scoring matches with only one side scoring, if at all.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 100% of West Brom’s home matches have remained under 2.5 goals. This trend is consistent with their low average match goals (0.5), underscoring a preference for tight, low-risk encounters.
Corners: West Brom has averaged 9.83 corners per home game with 83% of games featuring over 7.5 corners. They also earn a high number of corners themselves, averaging 6.5 per match at home, indicating a tendency to push offensively without converting those opportunities.
Cards: West Brom averages 4.83 cards per home game, with more cards distributed in the second half, indicating increased intensity or fouls later in matches.
First 10 Minutes: West Brom has not scored or conceded any goals within the first 10 minutes at home, with 100% of these periods ending in draws, suggesting a cautious and disciplined start to each game.

Key Insights:

Defensive Consistency: West Brom has kept a high clean sheet rate of 83% at home, allowing just 0.17 goals per game. Their xGA aligns closely with actual performance, indicating reliable defensive stability.
Scoring Challenges: With an average of only 0.33 goals scored per game at home, West Brom struggles to convert chances, as reflected in a home shot conversion rate of just 3%.
Low-Scoring Matches: All home matches have finished under 2.5 goals, with the most common scorelines being 0-0 and 1-0. This consistency makes the Under 2.5 Goals market particularly appealing.
Corners: Despite their low goal output, West Brom frequently generates corners, averaging 6.5 corners per home match, indicating they can build pressure but lack effective final execution.
First Half Draws: 83% of home games end the first half 0-0, underscoring a cautious start. This aligns with a high likelihood of a half-time draw, especially 0-0.
Late Goals Conceded: West Brom tend to concede in the final 10 minutes of matches, a potential vulnerability for opponents seeking a late advantage.

Burnley Away Data

Burnley have played 7 away games this season, showing a strong defensive approach with low goal-scoring tendencies.

Goals: Burnley averages 1.14 goals per game away from home, conceding only 0.57 goals per game. This reflects their solid defensive capabilities on the road but a modest scoring output, aligning with their overall conservative approach.
xG (Expected Goals): Burnley’s xG in away games stands at 1.15, closely matching their actual goals scored per match (1.14), indicating that they are performing as expected in converting scoring chances.
xGA (Expected Goals Against): Burnley’s xGA for away games is 1.15, higher than their actual goals conceded (0.57), which suggests that their defense has been effective in limiting goals below expected levels, outperforming expected metrics.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Only 29% of Burnley’s away games have seen both teams score, which confirms Burnley’s defensive stability and the low-scoring nature of their away matches.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Just 14% of Burnley’s away games have gone over 2.5 goals, reinforcing their pattern of low-scoring matches on the road, with the majority (86%) of games staying under 2.5 goals.
First Half Goals: Burnley’s away games are often slow to start, with 57% of first halves ending with no goals scored by Burnley and an average of 0.57 goals scored in the first half. Their defense holds strong as well, conceding only 0.29 goals in the first half away from home.

Key Insights:

Low-Scoring Matches: Burnley’s away games consistently stay under 2.5 goals, with only 14% exceeding this mark. This trend suggests value in betting on Under 2.5 Goals for Burnley’s away fixtures.
Disciplined Defense: Burnley’s away xGA of 1.15 contrasts with their actual concession rate of 0.57 goals, indicating that their defensive unit has exceeded expectations, maintaining a high level of discipline and limiting scoring opportunities.
First Half Under 1.5 Goals: With 57% of first halves in away games seeing Burnley fail to score, betting on First Half Under 1.5 Goals aligns with their tendency for conservative starts.
Second Half Clean Sheets: Burnley keeps a second-half clean sheet in 71% of away games, reflecting defensive resilience late in matches. Markets for Second Half Clean Sheet could offer value.
Late Goals: A notable 18% of Burnley’s goals away from home are scored between the 71st and 90th minutes, suggesting a potential advantage in Late Goal (71’-90’) markets.
Low BTTS: With only 29% of away games resulting in both teams scoring, the BTTS (No) market aligns with Burnley’s typical defensive style.
Corners: Burnley averages 9.00 total corners per away match, with 4.00 corners earned by Burnley themselves. Betting on Total Corners Over 6.5 might align well, as 71% of their away games surpass this threshold.
Shots on Target: Burnley averages 4.29 shots on target per away match with a conversion rate of 13%, needing about 8 shots to score. Betting on Over 3.5 Shots on Target for Burnley could be a valuable market if they sustain their average shot output.

Match Betting Section

Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming EFL Championship match between West Bromwich Albion and Burnley at The Hawthorns.

Remember, with value betting, you are placing bets that have a greater chance of winning than the implied odds, giving you an edge over the bookmakers. It’s not necessarily the result you would expect.

Full-Time Result – Draw

Odds: 3.22
Implied Probability: 31.06%
Statistical Justification: With both teams displaying strong defensive performances, and West Bromwich frequently drawing at home (50% home draw rate), the likelihood of a draw is high. Burnley has also maintained a disciplined form away.
Value Bet: The implied probability is significantly lower than the statistical probability of a draw, offering value in this market.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Under 2.5

Odds: 1.58
Implied Probability: 63.29%
Statistical Justification: Both teams show a high rate of low-scoring games, with only 14% of Burnley’s away games and 31% of West Brom’s home games going over 2.5 goals.
Value Bet: The likelihood of under 2.5 goals is high based on recent performances, making this a value bet.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No

Odds: 1.80
Implied Probability: 55.56%
Statistical Justification: With Burnley showing a 29% BTTS rate in away games and West Brom a low 38% rate at home, it is unlikely that both teams will score in this match.
Value Bet: The statistical probability of a low-scoring game supports a bet on BTTS (No) at favourable odds.

BTTS 1st Half – No

Odds: 1.13
Implied Probability: 88.50%
Statistical Justification: Both teams show minimal scoring in the first half, with Burnley failing to score in 54% of first halves and West Brom having a low first-half scoring record.
Value Bet: The data strongly supports a bet on BTTS (No) in the first half, as both teams typically have low first-half goal activity.

BTTS 2nd Half – No

Odds: 1.25
Implied Probability: 80%
Statistical Justification: Scoring remains low in the second half for both teams, with Burnley having a second-half BTTS rate of only 8% away.
No Bet: Although this is likely, the odds do not provide significant value due to high implied probability.

Over/Under 1st Half – Under 1.5 Goals

Odds: 1.29
Implied Probability: 77.52%
Statistical Justification: The likelihood of fewer goals in the first half is high, with both teams frequently seeing low first-half goal totals.
No Bet: This market has been priced fairly, offering limited value.

Result 1st Half – Draw

Odds: 2.04
Implied Probability: 49.02%
Statistical Justification: With a high probability of a draw in the first half, given both teams’ low early goal rates, this market has potential.
Value Bet: This is a value bet based on the high draw probability, especially in the first half.

Double Chance – X2 (Draw or Burnley Win)

Odds: 1.65
Implied Probability: 60.61%
Statistical Justification: Burnley’s strong away form and West Brom’s tendency for draws make this a favorable outcome.
Value Bet: This market aligns well with statistical trends, providing good value.

Result 2nd Half – Draw

Odds: 2.25
Implied Probability: 44.44%
Statistical Justification: West Brom frequently draws in the second half, and Burnley’s disciplined defense suggests a likely second-half draw.
Value Bet: Statistically supported, the draw outcome in the second half shows value here.

Over/Under 2nd Half – Under 1.5 Goals

Odds: 1.50
Implied Probability: 66.67%
Statistical Justification: With low scoring trends in the second half, under 1.5 goals aligns with both teams’ patterns.
Value Bet: This market offers value due to the low goal frequency in the second half for both teams.

Team to Score First – Burnley

Odds: 2.30
Implied Probability: 43.48%
Statistical Justification: Burnley has a solid record of scoring first in 46% of matches, making this an attractive option.
Value Bet: Burnley’s strong goal-starting trend provides good value here.

Clean Sheet – West Bromwich Albion

Odds: 2.40
Implied Probability: 41.67%
Statistical Justification: West Brom has a high clean sheet rate at home (83%), supported by Burnley’s defensive structure.
Value Bet: This market aligns well with West Brom’s strong defensive trend at home.

Clean Sheet – Burnley

Odds: 3.20
Implied Probability: 31.25%
Statistical Justification: Burnley’s away clean sheet rate is strong, which could justify a bet if they maintain discipline.
No Bet: While statistically probable, the high odds limit the market’s appeal.

Win to Nil – West Bromwich Albion

Odds: 3.50
Implied Probability: 28.57%
Statistical Justification: West Brom’s home clean sheet rate supports a potential win without conceding.
No Bet: West Brom’s form doesn’t fully justify this outcome, given Burnley’s strength.

Corners 1×2 – West Bromwich Albion to Win Corners

Odds: 1.88
Implied Probability: 53.19%
Statistical Justification: West Brom has the edge in home corner rates.
No Bet: Though likely, the value here is minimal.

Corners Over/Under 9.5 – Under 9.5 Corners

Odds: 2.25
Implied Probability: 44.44%
Statistical Justification: The low corner frequency aligns with statistical trends.
Value Bet: This market shows value based on Burnley’s and West Brom’s corner averages.

Final Score & Best Value Bet

STATTO PREDICTION
West Brom1-1Burnley

BEST VALUE BET
Under 2.5 Goals (1.58)

HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Under 9.5 Corners (2.25)

If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:

Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.

IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more.

Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.