Match Introduction
Kicking off on Saturday Oct 12, 2024 at 3:00pm, AFC Wimbledon will face Carlisle United in an EFL League Two fixture at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
AFC Wimbledon, currently 13th in the table, has performed well at home, while Carlisle United, sitting 22nd, has struggled throughout the season, particularly in their away matches.
Wimbledon will look to take advantage of Carlisle’s weak away form, while Carlisle United will aim to improve their defensive structure to avoid further struggles on the road.
AFC Wimbledon Home Form
At home, Wimbledon have so far played 3 games this season:
- Goals: They’ve averaged 2.67 goals per game, while conceding 0.67 goals per game.
- xG (Expected Goals): Their home xG is 1.89, showing they are slightly overperforming in front of goal.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their xGA is 0.81, indicating they have a solid defence at home.
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Both teams have scored in 33% of their home games.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 67% of AFC Wimbledon’s home games have seen over 2.5 goals.
- First Half Goals: 100% of their home games have had at least one first-half goal, and 33% have seen two or more.
Carlisle United Away Form
Away from home, Carlisle United have played 5 games this season:
- Goals: They’ve averaged 0.80 goals per game, while conceding 1.80 goals per game, highlighting their defensive issues.
- xG (Expected Goals): Their away xG is 1.17, showing they struggle to convert chances.
- xGA (Expected Goals Against): Their xGA is 1.40, pointing to defensive vulnerabilities.
- BTTS: Both teams have scored in 40% of Carlisle’s away games.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: 60% of their away games have seen over 2.5 goals.
- First Half Goals: 80% of Carlisle’s away games have had at least one first-half goal, with 40% seeing two or more first-half goals.
Recommended Bets
This AI analysis uses extensive historical data, live bookmaker odds, and statistical modelling to identify potential value bets for the upcoming EFL League Two match between AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle United.
Full-Time Result
AFC Wimbledon has shown superior form at home, winning 67% of their home matches, while Carlisle United have lost 60% of their away games.
- Value Bet Justification: Based on home/away form and their current defensive and offensive records, AFC Wimbledon should win this match.
- Odds: AFC Wimbledon to Win @ 1.80
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
AFC Wimbledon’s matches have frequently gone over 2.5 goals, with 67% of their home games surpassing this mark. Carlisle United’s defence has been weak, and 60% of their away matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
- Value Bet Justification: With both teams having a tendency to be involved in high-scoring games, over 2.5 goals is a good option.
- Odds: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
AFC Wimbledon has conceded in only 33% of their home games, while Carlisle United has struggled to score consistently, managing to score in just 60% of their away matches.
- Value Bet Justification: With AFC Wimbledon’s strong home defence and Carlisle’s inconsistent attack, BTTS (No) presents value.
- Odds: BTTS (No) @ 1.83
BTTS in the 1st Half
AFC Wimbledon tends to start strong, with 100% of their home games featuring at least one first-half goal, while Carlisle United has struggled early, conceding in 40% of first halves away.
- Value Bet Justification: AFC Wimbledon’s strong early performances and Carlisle’s defensive frailty make BTTS (No) in the 1st Half a solid option.
- Odds: BTTS (No) in the 1st Half @ 1.17
Clean Sheet – AFC Wimbledon
Given Carlisle United’s low goal-scoring record on the road and AFC Wimbledon’s solid defensive performances at home, a clean sheet for Wimbledon is likely.
- Value Bet Justification: AFC Wimbledon has kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home games, and with Carlisle United struggling to score away, this bet offers value.
- Odds: AFC Wimbledon to Keep a Clean Sheet @ 2.40
Team to Score First
AFC Wimbledon has scored the first goal in 67% of their home games, while Carlisle has conceded first in 60% of their away matches.
- Value Bet Justification: Wimbledon’s ability to control games early on makes them the stronger candidate to score first.
- Odds: AFC Wimbledon to Score First @ 1.53
Double Chance
AFC Wimbledon has a strong home record, while Carlisle United struggles on the road.
- Value Bet Justification: For added safety, a double chance bet covering a Wimbledon win or draw is a safer option.
- Odds: 1X Double Chance @ 1.22
Over/Under 1st Half
AFC Wimbledon tends to see early goals, with 100% of their home games featuring at least one first-half goal. Carlisle United’s away form suggests they may struggle defensively.
- Value Bet Justification: Over 0.5 first-half goals is highly likely, given both teams’ tendencies.
- Odds: Over 0.5 First Half Goals @ 1.40
Clean Sheet – Carlisle United
Though less likely, Carlisle United may keep a clean sheet if they adopt a very defensive approach, as seen in some of their previous matches.
- Value Bet Justification: If Carlisle tightens their defence, they might hold out for a clean sheet, though this is a riskier option.
- Odds: Carlisle United to Keep a Clean Sheet @ 4.50
Team to Score Last
AFC Wimbledon’s strong home form and Carlisle’s poor defence suggest Wimbledon will have control over the match and are more likely to score the final goal.
- Value Bet Justification: Wimbledon’s dominance in this fixture makes them the better candidate to score last.
- Odds: AFC Wimbledon to Score Last @ 1.53
Win to Nil – AFC Wimbledon
Given Carlisle’s poor attacking form away from home, AFC Wimbledon could win without conceding a goal.
- Value Bet Justification: With AFC Wimbledon’s defensive solidity and Carlisle’s lack of threat in attack, a win to nil for Wimbledon offers good value.
- Odds: AFC Wimbledon to Win to Nil @ 3.00
Final Score & Best Value Bet
AFC Wimbledon come into this match with a strong home record, having won two out of their three home games this season while maintaining a solid defensive performance.
Carlisle United, meanwhile, have struggled away from home, managing only one win in five games and conceding an average of 1.80 goals per match.
STATTO PREDICTION
Wimbledon2-0Carlisle United
BEST VALUE BET
Wimbledon To Win (1.80)
HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Wimbledon To Win To Nil (3.00)
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- Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
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IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more. We anticipate a launch of our betting service at the start of the 2024-25 season.
Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.
