Wrexham FC Vs Northampton Town FC: AI Betting Analysis

Match Introduction

Kicking off at 3:00 pm on Saturday, October 5, 2024, Wrexham FC will face Northampton Town FC at the STōK Cae Ras in an EFL League One fixture.

Wrexham enters into this match with an excellent home record, having won all four of their home games this season, averaging 2.75 goals scored per game and maintaining a solid defensive performance.

Northampton Town have had mixed results away from home, with one win, one draw, and one loss in their three away matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored per game.

Wrexham Home Form

Wrexham’s excellent home form has been a key factor in their overall performance this season, contributing heavily to their position in the upper echelons of the EFL League One table.

Their strong attacking prowess at home, combined with a solid defensive record, makes them a formidable side at the STōK Cae Ras.

Matches and Points: Wrexham have played a total of 4 home games this season, securing 12 points and averaging 3.00 points per game at home.
Goals Scored and Conceded: They have scored 11 goals across their 4 home matches, averaging 2.75 goals per game. They have conceded 3 goals, maintaining a 50% clean sheet record at home.
Expected Goals (xG): Wrexham have an average xG of 1.52 per match at home, while their xG against (xGA) is 1.42 per match.
xG Differential: Wrexham’s positive xG differential at home is +0.10 per match, reflecting their ability to create slightly better chances than their opponents.
xG Breakdown by Half: Specific data for xG per half is not available.
High-Quality Chances: Specific data for the percentage of xG from high-quality chances is not available.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both teams have scored in 50% of Wrexham’s home matches.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Wrexham’s home games have seen 100% go over 2.5 goals, while 0% have remained under 2.5 goals.
Corners: Their home matches have averaged 11.00 corners per game, with 5.13 corners in the first half and 4.50 corners in the second half. Data on the percentage of matches with over 7.5 corners is not specified.
Cards: Wrexham’s home matches have averaged 3.5 total cards per game, with 1.75 cards for Wrexham and 1.75 cards against their opponents.
Last 4 Home Results: Wrexham 2-1 Crawley Town, Wrexham 3-0 Shrewsbury Town, Wrexham 3-0 Reading, Wrexham 3-2 Wycombe Wanderers.

Northampton Town Away Form

Northampton Town’s away form in the 2024/25 season has been average, showing a mix of results on the road.

They have managed to secure points in two out of their three away matches, indicating their ability to compete away from home.

Matches and Points: Northampton Town have played a total of 3 away games this season, securing 4 points and averaging 1.33 points per game away from home.
Goals Scored and Conceded: They have scored 5 goals across their 3 away matches, averaging 1.67 goals per game. They have conceded 4 goals, with a 0% clean sheet record in away matches.
Expected Goals (xG): Northampton Town have an average xG of 1.04 per away match, while their xG against (xGA) is 1.55 per match.
xG Differential: Northampton Town’s negative xG differential away is -0.51 per match, suggesting that opponents are creating slightly better chances.
xG Breakdown by Half: Specific data for xG per half is not available.
High-Quality Chances: Specific data for the percentage of xG from high-quality chances is not available.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both teams have scored in 67% of Northampton Town’s away matches.
Over/Under Goals: Northampton Town’s away games have seen 67% go over 2.5 goals, while 33% have remained under 2.5 goals.
Corners: Their away matches have averaged 8.33 corners per game. Specific averages for first-half and second-half corners are not specified.
Cards: Northampton Town’s away matches have averaged 4.33 total cards per game, with 2.67 cards for Northampton Town and approximately 1.66 cards against their opponents.
Last 3 Away Results: Bristol Rovers 1-0 Northampton Town, Barnsley 2-2 Northampton Town, Huddersfield Town 1-3 Northampton Town.

Recommended Value Bets

This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It eliminates human emotions and biases. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious, especially given it is early in the season and data is limited!

Our AI Statto has analysed extensive data and statistics against live bookmaker odds to identify value bets for the upcoming EFL League One match between Wrexham FC and Northampton Town FC.

⚽️ Full-Time Result

Data Analysis

Wrexham have played 4 home games this season, winning all 4, securing 12 points with an average of 3.00 points per game at home.
They have scored 11 goals at home, averaging 2.75 goals per game, and conceded 3 goals, maintaining a 50% clean sheet record.
Northampton Town have played 3 away games, winning 1, drawing 1, and losing 1, securing 4 points with an average of 1.33 points per game away.
Northampton have conceded in all their away matches, with a 0% clean sheet record on the road.

Odds Analysis

The average odds for a Wrexham win are around 1.55, implying an approximate 64.5% chance.
Considering Wrexham’s 100% home win rate, the true probability may be higher than the implied probability.

Value Bet Justification

Given Wrexham’s dominant home form and Northampton’s inconsistent away performance, a bet on Wrexham to win offers good value.
Their strong offensive record and solid defense at home increase the likelihood of securing a victory.

⚽️ Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Data Analysis

Wrexham’s home games have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of matches.
Northampton Town’s away games have seen over 2.5 goals in 67% of matches.
Combined, there is an average likelihood of 83.5% for over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

Odds Analysis

The odds for Over 2.5 Goals are around 1.80, implying a probability of approximately 55.5%.
The statistical likelihood is significantly higher than the implied probability.

Value Bet Justification

The high frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals for both teams suggests that betting on Over 2.5 Goals offers strong value.
Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score and concede, increasing the chances of a high-scoring game.

⚽️ BTTS (Yes)

Data Analysis

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) has occurred in 50% of Wrexham’s home matches.
Northampton Town’s away matches have seen BTTS in 67% of games.
The combined average likelihood is approximately 58.5%.

Odds Analysis

The odds for BTTS (Yes) are around 1.80, implying a probability of about 55.5%.
The statistical likelihood is slightly higher than the implied probability.

Value Bet Justification

Given both teams’ tendency to score, especially Northampton’s scoring in away games, there is value in betting on BTTS (Yes).
Wrexham’s strong attack and Northampton’s average defence support this outcome.

⚽️ Result Half-Time

Data Analysis

Wrexham have led at half-time in 100% of their home matches.
Northampton Town have been losing or drawing at half-time in 67% of their away matches.

Odds Analysis

The odds for Wrexham to lead at half-time are around 2.05, implying a probability of approximately 48.8%.
Wrexham’s historical data suggests a higher likelihood than the implied probability.

Value Bet Justification

Wrexham’s strong starts at home indicate value in betting on them to lead at half-time.
Their offensive prowess early in matches increases the chance of this outcome.

⚽️ BTTS Half-Time

Data Analysis

BTTS in the first half has occurred in 0% of Wrexham’s home matches.
Northampton Town’s away matches have also seen 0% BTTS in the first half.

Odds Analysis

The odds for BTTS (No) in the first half are low, reflecting the high likelihood.
Betting on BTTS (No) aligns with the data.

Value Bet Justification

Given the absence of BTTS in the first half for both teams, betting on BTTS (No) in the first half offers value.

⚽️ Over/Under 1st Half

Data Analysis

Over 0.5 first-half goals have occurred in 100% of Wrexham’s home matches.
Northampton Town’s away matches have seen over 0.5 first-half goals in 67% of games.

Odds Analysis

The odds for Over 0.5 first-half goals are around 1.35, implying a probability of approximately 74%.
The combined statistical likelihood is higher, at around 83.5%.

Value Bet Justification

The data suggests a high probability of at least one goal in the first half, offering value in betting on Over 0.5 first-half goals.

⚽️ Team To Score First

Data Analysis

Wrexham have been the first team to score in 100% of their home matches.
Northampton Town have scored first in 33% of their away matches.

Odds Analysis

The odds for Wrexham to score first are around 1.36, implying a probability of approximately 73.5%.
Considering Wrexham’s record, the true probability may be higher.

Value Bet Justification

Wrexham’s tendency to open the scoring at home indicates value in this market.

⚽️ Win To Nil

Data Analysis

Wrexham have kept clean sheets in 50% of their home matches.
Northampton Town have failed to score in 33% of their away matches.

Odds Analysis

The odds for Wrexham to win to nil are around 2.65, implying a probability of approximately 37.7%.

Value Bet Justification

Considering Wrexham’s defensive strength and Northampton’s occasional struggles to score, there may be value in Wrexham winning without conceding.

⚽️ Corners Over/Under

Data Analysis

Wrexham’s home matches have averaged 11.00 corners per game.
Northampton Town’s away matches have averaged 8.33 corners per game.
Combined, there is potential for a high number of corners.

Odds Analysis

The odds for Over 10.5 corners are around 2.23, implying a probability of approximately 44.8%.

Value Bet Justification

The statistical data suggests a higher likelihood of exceeding 10.5 corners, offering value in betting on Over 10.5 corners.

⚽️ Most Corners (1X2)

Data Analysis

Wrexham have averaged 4.75 corners per home match.
Northampton Town have averaged 3.33 corners per away match.
Wrexham have had more corners than their opponents in 0% of home matches, while Northampton have had more in 33% of away matches.

Odds Analysis

The odds favour Wrexham to have the most corners, but the data indicates a closer contest.

Value Bet Justification

Given the similar corner statistics, there may be value in betting on Northampton Town or a draw in the corners market.

Final Score & Best Value Bet

STATTO PREDICTION
Wrexham2-1Northampton Town

BEST VALUE BET
Over 2.5 Goals (1.80)

HANDPICKED VALUE BET
Wrexham lead at half-time (2.10)

If you are a recreational gambler, it’s important to follow these guidelines:

Bankroll Management: Split your betting bank into 100 points and use 1 point per Best Value Bet selection. Keep your betting money separate from your personal funds to ensure essential bills are always paid.
Shop around for the Best Odds: Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible return on your bets. Even the smallest increase can make a huge difference to your betting bank over 100’s bets.
Gamble Responsibly: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling should be fun. The National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) provides confidential information, advice and support for anyone affected by gambling problems.
Long-Term Perspective: While we hope to show a profit over 100 games, it is important to note that any single game or a run of games can result in losses. After a few winners do not be tempted to increase stakes massively, increase in small increments. Stay patient and stick to your strategy.

IMPORTANT: Our AI Statto is currently in the testing phase, where we are continuously evolving and experimenting with new prompts, leagues, match selections, and more. We anticipate a launch of our betting service at the start of the 2024-25 season.

Disclaimer: This report uses Artificial Intelligence. It relies on historical data, statistical models, and algorithms. It avoids human emotions and biases. It’s for information only. The predictions are not guaranteed. Betting is risky. So, be cautious.